UFC 260 ‘Miocic vs. Ngannou 2’

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The
Ultimate Fighting Championship lost momentum heading into its
big heavyweight-headed pay-per-view for a variety of reasons. From
lackluster recent headliners to noteworthy bouts falling off this
card, the lean UFC
260 lineup on Saturday does not have many options left. Two
fights currently billed for the card—Shane
Young-Omar
Morales and Gillian
Robertson-Miranda
Maverick have unanswered COVID-19 questions looming, as both
Young and Robertson train with afflicted personnel. With 10 fights
hanging in the balance, multiple solid options remain, including an
underappreciated well-rounded champ, a flier on a major underdog, a
hastily made fight that should end violently and a slight underdog
who deserves recognition.

The champ gets no respect. Since his rise to the top began in 2015,
Miocic’s lone blemish came against Daniel
Cormier, and the Euclid, Ohio, native avenged the loss twice as
he wrested his belt back. Although some call him the greatest
heavyweight in MMA history—an accolade others dispute, raising
Fedor
Emelianenko as the obvious alternative—he enters the rematch
against the uber-dangerous Francis
Ngannou as a betting underdog. This makes sense if looking
exclusively at Ngannou’s body of work since dropping a rough
decision to Miocic in 2018, as “The Predator” demolished four
top-tier opponents while averaging just over 40 seconds for each
victory. Ngannou is a threat for as long as he is on the feet, with
otherworldly power at his disposal. However, Miocic possesses the
kind of skillset that can defuse the bomb and get his hand raised a
second time.

The Sherdog staff was derided after the play-by-play coverage of
Ngannou’s last bout, where he windmilled through Jairzinho
Rozenstruik in 20 seconds. “We’ve never seen a heavyweight
quite like ‘The Predator’” was the statement, and some considered
that big men in the past have possessed this kind of power and
displayed it often. Shane
Carwin won all four of his bouts inside the Octagon in under
four minutes each, and all by ruthless knockout. Junior dos
Santos began his UFC run with five consecutive strike
stoppages, and only the legendary Mirko
Filipovic survived beyond the opening frame. Where Ngannou has
all of them beaten is how quickly the Frenchman dismantles his
opponents.

Ngannou is tied with former opponents Cain
Velasquez and Andrei
Arlovski for the most first-round knockouts in UFC heavyweight
history with seven each. When accounting for those that take place
within the first two minutes, the records change significantly.
Each of Ngannou’s seven UFC knockouts has come within 120 seconds
of the fight. In comparison, Arlovski has done this three times
while Velasquez achieved this feat just once. His fight-changing
power is so terrifying that he can beat opponents before the cage
door closes. Rozenstruik backed straight into the fence, where
Ngannou’s left hook separated him from his senses in an instant.
This reputation for a so-called “destroyer of worlds,” plus the
level of competition he has put away in his time in the Octagon,
makes him truly a one-of-a-kind talent.

“The Predator” is far from an unbeatable force, as evidenced by
Miocic’s excellent strategy against him three years ago. Ngannou
had brief moments, namely when he would land flush on his opponent,
but Miocic largely held the challenger at bay while avoiding the
most lethal blows. He did so by aiming for takedowns almost right
out of the gate, forcing the MMA Factory export to spend his gas
tank defending the shots and fighting out of positions he is not
nearly as comfortable handling. Ngannou and his camp claim they
have shored up his deficiencies, but there is no evidence to
support these claims, thanks to his lightning-quick stoppages. Can
he fight off the takedown? Can his cardio hold up if he is forced
to play defense against the cage or on his back for prolonged
periods of time? These unanswered questions make the champ a very
interesting option.

To quote the wise words of colleague Todd Martin,
“Miocic is a generalist rather than a specialist, and he can take
advantage of the weaknesses of his opponents because he’s strong in
all components of the sport.” It is this adaptable skillset,
one that he can change on the fly and rapidly rack up half a dozen
takedowns on the likes of Mark Hunt or
Ngannou, that gives him a serious advantage. In this sport, the
one-trick ponies can be overcome by fighters with fewer holes in
their overall game, and grapplers often are known for the ability
to control where the fight takes place. Forcing Ngannou to retreat,
even for a short period of time, will work to his benefit
immensely.

The obvious alternative pick, which is a narrow but realistic prop
bet, is Ngannou Wins in Round 1 at +225. It should be noted that
this play currently features superior odds to that of Ngannou
winning by first-round knockout at +210, although the line may
shift as the fight gets closer. Conventional wisdom and historical
precedent dictate that if Ngannou gets it done, it will be early
thanks to his mighty fists. Cormier did just that to the champ in
2018, six months after Ngannou could not. Using a similar approach
to his first fight, while staying lighter and never once backing up
directly into the wire, Miocic can win and shut down Ngannou once
more. As long as he keeps his head on his shoulders and makes it to
the second round—Miocic’s power should not to be forgotten, as the
champ posts six first-round knockouts of his own—Cleveland will
have one more thing to cheer about on Sunday morning.

The confidence in this pick lies with the perceived ability or
potential weakness seen on Sean
O’Malley in his last outing. “Sugar Sean” lost thanks to
deadly-effective kicks that shut down his leg in the early going,
with Marlon
Vera’s accuracy the reason for the damage. This is O’Malley’s
opportunity to get his proverbial mojo back, as he looks to rebound
from his first career setback against the skidding Almeida. The sky
was the limit for Almeida until he ran into a quicker, more agile
striker who could find the spot before he could. O’Malley has the
ability to shut the lights out and get back on track in a big way
here— and this could unquestionably happen, with the O’Malley Wins
by TKO/KO line a comfortable +135. However, the Brazilian poses
some issues, and O’Malley may have kinks to work out. This places
Almeida as the sizeable underdog option for some value, although
there is risk knowing O’Malley’s track record.

Much was made about Almeida’s rise through the ranks from 2014 to
2016, as he was unbeaten with a gaudy record and a sky-high finish
rate until meeting future champ Cody
Garbrandt in high-stakes headliner. The first loss was a brutal
one for “Thominhas,” who did bounce back six months later by laying
waste to Albert
Morales. He has not won since, dropping three in a row to
Jimmie
Rivera, Rob Font and
Jonathan
Martinez over the last few years. Inactivity has plagued the
once-lauded contender, and questions loom over whether his chin has
the ability to take heavy shots. Where he does excel is his
offense-heavy approach, blitzing opponents and letting loose with a
blazing torrent of strikes until they have no choice but to
retreat. Chaining combinations and ending them with leg kicks is
something at which he excels, and given O’Malley’s disinclination
for these strikes, it could give him pause.

There is always the distinct possibility that Almeida gets clipped
charging in, as he is wont to do with a headlong rush that puts him
in harm’s way before he can close the distance. O’Malley may only
have two inches longer in the reach, but he fights long, with
lunging strikes and reaching shots that can catch opponents coming
in. A smart, tactical O’Malley can pick away at Almeida until the
Brazilian leaves himself open. Despite the imaginable ways for
O’Malley to get his hand raised, there is something to a famous
fighter suffering his first loss and surrendering the gravitas that
came with it. Almeida did not quite look as devastating in his
return after his ejection from the ranks of the unbeaten, and
O’Malley might find himself second-guessing himself as “Thominhas”
bears down on him. The danger that Almeida presents, still only 29
years of age with a ferocious 95 percent stoppage rate, makes him a
possible upset pick if your confidence with the “Sugar Show” is
shaken.

COVID-19 took what was likely to be a barnburner between Menifield
and William
Knight and transformed it into a completely different stylistic
matchup that may be no less violent. Stepping in on a few days’
notice is Cherant, the recently crowned Legacy Fighting Alliance light heavyweight
king. To wit, the last two bouts for the newcomer have both gone
the distance, but the previous six appearances all ended within two
frames. In a similar but more substantial nature, 10 of Menifield’s
11 career bouts have not reached the 10-minute mark. As this is a
fresh matchup, the variety of prop bets will develop closer to the
bout, but a play of this plus Menifield Wins by TKO/KO may be in a
savvy bettor’s best interest.

Menifield charged into the UFC with a brutal eight-second knockout
of Dashawn
Boatwright on the second season of Dana White’s Contender Series, and laying waste
to Vinicius
Moreira and Paul Craig
showed he might have what it takes to climb the 205-pound ladder.
Disheartening setbacks to Devin Clark
and, most recently, Ovince St.
Preux, have dulled the immediate championship aspirations of
the Texan. His pace proved to be his greatest enemy, as he threw
hard early and often until his cardio fell apart against both
fighters. While Clark tired him out with takedowns and was
ultimately unable to secure a stoppage, St. Preux outlasted a
slowing Menifield before short-circuiting “Atomic Alonzo” with an
explosive check hook. Both of these outcomes, plus all of
Menifield’s past victories, lean towards this one ending early.

Cherant’s last performance came a month ago against a durable but
outmatched Myron
Dennis in an exhausting five-round affair. Mixing in grappling
with an improving kicking arsenal, he did enough to sway the judges
in his favor, even as his own gas tank began to betray him in the
later rounds. The fabled “Octagon jitters,” a recent grueling bout,
the short-notice nature of this replacement opportunity and high
finish rates on each side paints a picture of looming carnage.
Striking and power are firmly strengths for Menifield, while
Cherant brings effective grappling and unorthodox maneuvers to
surprise opponents. Menifield could find himself grounded if he
throws everything he has into his strikes, and if so, “The Water
Buffalo” could line himself up for any number of chokes. On the
other hand, a bullrush from Menifield could just as easily turn off
the debutant’s lights in a hurry. The danger both light
heavyweights present should lead to the judges feeling safe in
taking this fight off.

It has been nearly three years since Azaitar set foot inside the
Octagon, thanks to injury and issues with the United States
Anti-Doping Agency. It is difficult to display confidence in a
fighter that is facing an opponent whose entire UFC run has taken
place after that 2018 outing against Vitor
Miranda. Azaitar, the elder brother of much-maligned
lightweight Ottman
Azaitar, holds an impressive 10-fight unbeaten streak dating
back to 2012, when his left eyebrow was gashed open against
Marcin
Naruszczka. That and a disqualification in his MMA debut for
eye gouges—a serious offense under any metric—are the lone
blemishes on his record other than a draw with Piotr Strus
in KSW. Even though the Moroccan is now 35 and
despite his lengthy layoff, he should still have what it takes to
overcome Marc-Andre
Barriault.

Like his opponent, Barriault also ran afoul of USADA, with ostarine
being the culprit for his last win changing to a no contest.
Against Oskar
Piechota in 2020, the Canadian notched what was then his first
victory under the UFC banner, as he clobbered Piechota to earn a
much-needed victory. It was to be a turning point following a trio
of decision losses to Andrew
Sanchez, Krzysztof
Jotko and Jun Yong
Park. That was not meant to be, and he draws a matchup with the
powerful Azaitar once again in search of his first UFC triumph. His
power and pressure can make the difference, but he has struggled
against stronger opponents that employ a takedown and clinch-heavy
game. Azaitar can exploit this.

Azaitar will welcome a brawl, and his speed is an advantage if
Barriault holds the edge in power. Like others that caused issued
for “Power Bar” in the past, the Moroccan can switch things up in
an instant, going toe-to-toe in an exchange before suddenly changes
levels for a takedown. If he finds himself in danger or on his
back, Azaitar’s scrambling abilities are also solid enough to keep
in his back pocket. Barriault will not likely possess a gameplan of
taking the fight into deep waters, grinding it out and otherwise
racking up enough points to win. Instead, the Canadian will try to
knock Azaitar’s block off, especially as Barriault finds himself in
a precarious position with four UFC appearances without an official
win. The possibility for “Power Bar” to drain his power bar and go
for high-risk strikes and furious frenzied striking combinations
may leave him defensively open to either be countered or dragged to
the mat. Unless he gets clipped, Azaitar has the chops to win this
fight and record the minor upset.