Emmanuel Macron’s road to the presidency may explain his blunt approach to international diplomacy
To anyone else, it might have been a simple photo op with the US President. But to Emmanuel Macron, it was a political opportunity.
Sitting across from Donald Trump, a man defined by chaos and bluster, the French President made a strategic calculation, one he hoped would earn him respect.
With the eyes of the world on the two newly minted presidents in 2017, Macron gripped the ex-Apprentice star’s hands for several seconds, so tightly that his knuckles turned white.
As the pair shook hands aggressively, locking eyes with faces tight and jaws clenched, Macron hoped to show one of the most powerful leaders on earth that he wouldn’t make « small concessions, not even symbolic ones ».
The awkward moment, forever captured on camera, only ended when Trump was finally able to break free.
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Macron would later confess it was an « intentional » move to display his preferred leadership style.
« My handshake with him – it wasn’t innocent, » Macron told a French newspaper after the encounter in 2017.
« It’s not the be-all and the end-all of a policy, but it was a moment of truth. »
That moment of truth has defined Macron’s diplomacy, which observers say has been one of hyper-personalisation and bluntness.
From the start, Macron has sought to rule like Jupiter — « unchallenged and detached from trivialities, like the Roman god of the skies ».
But the day-to-day demands of politics have made that lofty goal hard to reach, especially with his popularity plummeting ahead of a looming election.
And so when an ally turned around and blindsided the leader, a humiliated Macron was eager to find a way to settle the score.
The ambitious outsider
Macron has always been something of an outsider within France’s political establishment.
William Drozdiak, who released a book last year about the French leader’s efforts to shape the future of Europe, says Macron prides himself on the fact that he is not a career politician.
« He had never been elected to any kind of public office before becoming President, » he told the ABC.
« And in a way, that has been part of his problem because he doesn’t have a lot of political experience. »
With a masters in public policy, Macron had been an investment banker before he was recruited to serve as then president Francois Hollande’s deputy chief of staff.
In almost no time at all, he was appointed minister of the economy, going on to make a name for himself over a package of economic measures to open up regulated sectors of the economy.
Dubbed the Macron law, the labour market reforms drove tens of thousands of people to the streets for months of protests across France.
While this divided public opinion on the young politician, Macron’s personal life also captured attention.
His wife, Brigitte Macron, used to be his teacher. Their 24-year age gap has raised eyebrows over the years, in a way that Donald Trump and his wife Melania’s never did.
The pair met in Macron’s hometown of Amiens in an after-school drama class. She was married with three kids, one of whom was in the same class as Macron.
When news of the relationship reportedly reached his parents, a 16-year-old Macron was shipped to Paris to finish his schooling. But the romance continued and the pair eventually married in 2007.
Since then, they have made a point of making their unconventional relationship public, appearing in celebrity magazines and portraying themselves as a modern family.
« We do not have a classic family, it’s undeniable, » Macron once told a political rally.
« But do we have less love in this family? I do not think so. Maybe there’s even more than conventional families. »
A high-stakes gamble
Macron has also built a reputation as a risk-taker, appearing to sense moments when he can take a political gamble.
That was certainly the case in 2016 when he defied his critics and started his own party, giving up a secure role in an established government where he was viewed as a potential successor.
His tilt at the presidency was another bold, calculated risk that could have ended badly.
Opponents initially dismissed the move, viewing the young politician as either overly ambitious or too green for his bid to be taken seriously.
But En Marche! was France’s answer to the rising popularity of anti-establishment parties across Europe. And its grassroots campaign successfully managed to draw in disillusioned voters from the left and the right with its promises of tax cuts, liberal social policies, and plans to strengthen the European Union.
Macron’s eventual victory stunned almost everyone. Not only was he France’s youngest-ever president, at just 39, but the first to not be aligned to either the Socialists or the conservatives.
« I think he’s someone who’s very hard and determined behind the amiable and seductive facade, » one of his biographers, Anne Fulda, told the BBC.
As President, Macron has continued to be a deft hand at the game of politics, building a reputation for his rather aggressive diplomacy.
Drozdiak says the French President is well known for « showing a bit too much arrogance in his dealings with the people ».
« He’s not a natural politician … so he’s willing to be much more candid and more forthright in expressing his displeasure with other states, » he says.
This approach has often been on display in Macron’s handling of diplomatic stoushes and his interactions with the public.
Only two years ago, Macron decried the « brain death » of the NATO alliance in an interview with The Economist.
And he has not shied away from recalling French ambassadors over perceived insults.
In 2019, Macron withdrew his representative from Italy for the first time since World War II over « unfounded attacks and outlandish claims » by Italian leaders.
The following year, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s suggestion the French President needed a « mental check » was met with a similarly swift response.
The underlying strategy behind France’s outcry
It’s perhaps no surprise then, that Macron hit back hard in the wake of the loss of a $90 billion submarine deal and the secretive nature of Australia’s alternative arrangement: AUKUS.
After weeks of frosty commentary from his countrymen about the last-minute « stab in the back », a withdrawal of ambassadors and a « candid » phone call with Morrison, Macron made the depth of his displeasure known at the G20.
When asked by an Australian reporter if he thought Morrison had lied to him about Australia’s intentions, the President replied: « I don’t think, I know. »
Not only did he think the AUKUS deal was bad news for France, but the way it played out was « detrimental to the reputation of your country and your Prime Minister ».
The situation soured even further when a leaked text message from Macron to Morrison was published in Australian papers — an « unprecedented new low » in the eyes of French ambassador Jean-Pierre Thebault.
There has also been an element of strategic outcry in France’s response, according to Eglantine Staunton, who specialises in French foreign policy at the Australian National University.
« We’ve got to remember that Macron is up for re-election in April, so there was a need to respond strongly to the loss of a $90 billion contract. But I think this explanation is only the tip of the iceberg, » she told ABC local radio.
« The French are not only upset about the cancellation of the deal, they’re furious at the way the announcement … was handled and its implication for French foreign policy. »
In France’s view, she says, the submarine program was always about far more than just a contract. It was about a strong partnership between two powers of the Indo-Pacific, which would strengthen France’s role in the region.
« So the way [AUKUS] was [struck] behind France’s back and the fact that France was completely excluded was perceived as a betrayal and a humiliation from France, » Dr Staunton said.
« And on their end, there was a will from Paris, to showcase this is not how you treat an ally and especially an ally like France. »
Drozdiak was not surprised at the strength of France’s response.
« And the feeling was particularly grievous because they felt that these were two close allies and that Macron has been working for over the past couple of years to try and develop a more effective strategy for France and Europe in the Indo-Pacific.
« And this sort of blew that whole thing apart. »
What does this mean for the French-Australian friendship?
Throughout the ordeal, officials on both sides have maintained the Australia-France relationship is very special. (Though, perhaps not as special as the US-France relationship, which, despite hurt feelings, looks to have improved markedly since US President Joe Biden smoothed things over with Macron.)
But it will take some healing before Australia can « work with old friends again », as Morrison had hoped.
« It was not necessarily a smart move by the Australian Prime Minister to leak this information or have his government leak this information, because it’s only going to engender more resentment in France and make it harder and take more time to repair the damage. »
France is an important ally for Australia, not just in Europe, but also closer to home.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure provides an opportunity for Macron to step into her shoes as de facto EU leader, just as Australia looks to renegotiate a major deal with its second-largest trade partner.
Though Macron’s own behaviour in Europe may make it harder for France to take the leadership role in Brussels, with analysts observing the French leader has acted « with too heavy a hand ».
As an Indo-Pacific neighbour, France has military bases in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, as well as 7,000 personnel and 1.5 million citizens dotted across its territories.
The French have also been a vocal friend to Australia.
As recently as June, Macron pledged the most significant public support any world leader has offered in Australia’s ongoing trade conflict with China.
« I know you are on the front lines of tensions that can exist in the region, of threats, sometimes of intimidation, and I want to say again here how much we stand by your side, » he told Mr Morrison upon welcoming him to France after the G7 summit.
Alexandre Dayant, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, says Australians shouldn’t be too worried about this long-term support disappearing overnight.
« I think you can expect France to continue to support Australia not only in those trade relationships but in many other ways, » he said.
But the submarine stoush has no doubt done some damage to Australia’s reputation — particularly among its closest neighbours who are nervous about nuclearisation in the region.
There are already suggestions on the table about how best to repair things.
In his speech to the National Press Club this week, the French ambassador referenced the inaugural 2+2 meeting in August where foreign and defence ministers agreed to a long list of activities both countries were keen to pursue together — including the ill-fated submarine program.
Now, he said, it is up to Australia to propose « tangible actions » to redefine the relationship going forward.
Ultimately, in the view of Mr Macron and of diplomats here and abroad, the drama has been a lesson in the importance of trust.
« Foreign relations are defined by governments and Departments of Foreign Affairs and a whole lot. But there is also a very important aspect of people-to-people connection between leaders, » Dayant said.
« There’s an aspect of trust that is very important in those relationships.
« Scott Morrison might have undermined, in some way, the foreign policy of Australia, because it means that this kind of trustworthy relationship that takes a lot of time to be built, can be broken. »