College football bowl projections and analysis

With Ohio State and Cincinnati rolling and Oregon losing big to Utah, we know changes are coming in the College Football Playoff top four. But the fallout will be felt throughout the New Year’s Six games and beyond.

What does it all mean for the bowl picture? Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura predict all the bowl matchups and provide analysis on the CFP picture, which teams helped or hurt their cause this weekend and the most intriguing matchups.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Cincinnati

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Ohio State

Playoff breakdown

Schlabach: My playoff projections got quite a bit of a shakeup with just one week to go in the regular season. Georgia remains No. 1 after another dominant performance, albeit against an FCS program, in a 56-7 rout of Charleston Southern at home. The Bulldogs can finish unbeaten in the regular season for the first time since 1982 with a win on the road at Georgia Tech on Saturday (noon ET, ABC and ESPN App).

Ohio State, a 56-7 winner over Michigan State, moves up to No. 2 in my rankings. The Buckeyes won’t have to worry about being ranked behind Oregon in the CFP selection committee’s rankings anymore, after the Ducks were blasted 38-7 at Utah on Saturday night. Oregon’s 35-28 victory at Ohio State on Sept. 11 probably won’t carry as much weight with the committee. The Buckeyes close the regular season at Michigan on Saturday.

Alabama had another closer-than-expected victory on Saturday, this time a 42-35 win over Arkansas at home, and fell to No. 3 in my projections. The Crimson Tide close the regular season at Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl, then will play Georgia in the Dec. 4 SEC championship game. I’m still not certain that Alabama will get into the playoff without a win against Georgia. Cincinnati, which is seeking to become the first Group of 5 team to crash the playoff, was the big winner this past weekend, as the Bearcats routed SMU 48-14 at home. Obviously, they will benefit greatly from Oregon’s loss.

Bonagura: Oregon’s feeble exit from the playoff conversation makes the selection pretty straightforward this week. Georgia stays on top, Ohio State rises to the second spot after its dominant win against Michigan State, Alabama sits at third and Cincinnati occupies the final berth thanks to the Ducks’ departure. Had Oregon won out, it would have had a clear path to the playoff, but now both Alabama and Cincinnati can feel a lot better about their chances.

The big unknown for Alabama was always going to be how much the committee would penalize the Tide for a loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Would that have been enough to drop them out in favor of 13-0 Cincinnati? I was never convinced that would happen, but that scenario is off the table now, and I don’t think Notre Dame or anyone in the Big 12 has a real chance of passing Alabama even with two losses.

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New Year’s Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Utah
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Utah

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss

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Team that helped its cause the most this weekend

Schlabach: As I wrote above, no team helped its cause more this week than Cincinnati, which turned in its most impressive performance of the season against the Ponies. The Bearcats reached the end zone on four of their first five possessions and piled up 544 yards of offense, while their defense limited SMU’s high-octane offense to only 66 passing yards. The Bearcats clinched a spot in the AAC championship game, and they’ll play Houston at home in that one if they take care of business at East Carolina on Friday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC and ESPN App). With Oregon losing, Cincinnati should crack the top four of the committee’s rankings for the first time on Tuesday.

Bonagura: Cincinnati faced a lot of scrutiny for its lack of dominating wins over the last couple of months, and it finally got one against a good SMU team. From a playoff perspective, the Bearcats are the obvious choice. And while Baylor’s 20-10 win against Kansas State might not have been that noteworthy, the Bears are inching closer to a ranking that could see them grab an at-large New Year’s Six bowl.

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Team that hurt its cause the most this weekend

Schlabach: Michigan State has improved greatly under second-year coach Mel Tucker, but it’s obvious the Spartans aren’t yet in Ohio State’s class. The Buckeyes embarrassed the Michigan State defense, as quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 32 of 35 passes for 432 yards. He set an OSU record with 17 straight completions and tied another school mark with six touchdown passes — all in the first half. With two losses in its last three games, Michigan State has been eliminated from the Big Ten East and CFP races. The demoralizing loss also put the Spartans’ chances for a New Year’s Six bowl game in question.

Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just hurt its case; the Ducks saw their case for a playoff spot completely disappear. Now they need to beat Oregon State just to reach the Pac-12 title game. A loss to the Beavers, which is well within the realm of possibility after the Ducks’ poor showing against Utah, would completely change the complexion of Oregon’s entire season.

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Team most disappointed with its landing spot

Bonagura: Cal. In the Golden Bears’ last three games that weren’t impacted by COVID-19, they are 3-0 with three fairly convincing wins (Colorado, 26-3; Oregon State, 39-25; Stanford, 41-11). A loss to lowly Arizona was mixed in there as they played with a decimated roster, leaving Cal with two remaining games (at UCLA, USC) to reach bowl eligibility. I have the Bears out, which feels harsh considering this is a team that should be good enough to be in a bowl game.

Schlabach: For the first time this season, you won’t find the Florida Gators in my bowl projections. The Gators have dropped five of their last seven games, with the only victories coming against Vanderbilt and FCS program Samford (which scored 52 points in the Swamp). Florida lost again Saturday, falling 24-23 in overtime at Missouri. Florida’s offense managed only 93 yards rushing against one of the most porous defenses in the FBS. The Gators had nine penalties and went just 5-for-18 on third down. Even if Florida beats Florida State at home to finish 6-6, its program trajectory is so bad right now that it would probably end up near the bottom of the SEC’s bowl pecking order.

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Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kent State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Alabama-Birmingham

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Central Michigan

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boise State vs. UTEP
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Miami (Ohio)

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. Alabama-Birmingham
Schlabach: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia State vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas-San Antonio vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: California vs. San Diego State

Bonagura’s most intriguing matchup: Give me UTSA vs. San Diego State in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl. This would be possible if the Pac-12 isn’t able to fill its entire allotment of bowl teams, which is still up in the air. UTSA has been one of the best stories in college football this year, and to put the Roadrunners up against San Diego State, the top-ranked Group of 5 team not named Cincinnati, would be a fantastic way for both teams to end the season.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Old Dominion

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Troy vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Utah State vs. UTEP

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Air Force vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Houston

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Florida Atlantic

Schlabach’s most intriguing matchup: I had three teams with projected 5-7 records in my bowl projections this week: Florida Atlantic, California and Illinois. Those selections were based on the 2020 Academic Progress Rate numbers; I’m guessing Florida would decline going to the postseason with a losing record (which the Gators will have if they lose to Florida State on Saturday). After an 0-4 start, the Seminoles have won five of their last seven games and can reach the postseason with a road victory at Florida on Saturday (noon ET, ESPN and ESPN App). I slotted the Seminoles to play the Owls in the Gasparilla Bowl, where they would meet former FSU coach Willie Taggart.

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Ball State
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Liberty

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Ball State vs. Georgia State

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Northern Illinois

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Houston
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida vs. Central Florida
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Central Florida

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Memphis vs. Army
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Auburn

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Washington State
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oregon State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Minnesota

Dec. 29

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. SMU
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Purdue vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Virginia

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Pittsburgh
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Wake Forest

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State

Dec. 30

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Miami
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. North Carolina

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. Purdue

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. UCLA

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Mississippi State

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington State

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Kent State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. Michigan State

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD, on ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Arkansas