World Series contender tiers — How far away from winning it all is your favorite MLB team?
In a fundamental sense, every team enters a new MLB season with the same goal: win the World Series. That’s what they say, anyway.
Realistically, we know this isn’t exactly true. We can buy that every team wants to win the World Series, even if some of them don’t seem to act like it. But we also know that championship teams take years to build and not every team is always quite ready to make a run at the game’s ultimate prize.
With the 2021 season finally upon us, I’m going to wrap up the weeks of preseason forecasts and projections by setting some basic expectations for the new season. Using each team’s 2021 probabilities of winning the next World Series, based on the forecasts from my projection system, and sorting forecasts into buckets, I’ve separated the clubs into tiers. Six tiers, to be exact.
The first three tiers include every team with at least a 0.5% shot at winning the title. These teams begin the season at least somewhat in win-now mode. Their ETA for contention is right now, or at least very soon. Teams that rank lower in these tiers might have to pivot during the season as their chances unravel. For now, we can assume the short-term goal is to win it all. Seventeen of the 30 teams fall into one of these three tiers.
The final three tiers introduce a bit of a wrinkle. Rather than just lump 13 teams into a pile and declare that they have virtually no shot at a 2021 title, I’ve taken a stab at declaring when their next shot at the big prize could realistically arise. Next year? Next decade?
Of course, projecting one season is a task so complex that if you wanted to call me a fool for even trying, I would have a hard time arguing with you. So projecting beyond that is … let’s just call it subjective, since the season just started and we’re trying to be kind here. I do have reasons for slotting teams where I do, and I’ll go into those as I comment on each club.
Let’s wade into the tiers, to see where your team landed.
Jump to a tier:
Tier 1: Their time is now | Tier 2: We’re saying there’s a chance
Tier 3: In … but not all-in | Tier 4: Wait ’til next year
Tier 5: Two years away … at least | Tier 6: The Rockies
TIER 1: THEIR TIME IS NOW
Teams in this group are the front-runners and should be all-in trying to win the 2021 World Series.
Projected wins: 107
2021 title odds: 30.7%
I’m kind of tired of writing laudatory things about the Dodgers, but here’s another list that they stand atop of. The one note of concern you might look at is that the Dodgers are getting more expensive. According to the latest figures from Cot’s Contracts, L.A.’s Opening Day payroll measured at 6.5% of MLB payroll (which I’m calling payroll share for today’s purposes). The Dodgers have been higher in the past and with a lot less success on the field. More recently, that number has crept up from 4.6% in 2018 to where it is now. Given the revenue advantages for L.A., though, does it even matter?
Projected wins: 98
2021 title odds: 17.4%
Another not-at-all-shocking outcome: The Yankees rate as the Dodgers’ prime challenger this season. Since we’re on the subject of payroll as a percentage of the MLB aggregate, New York’s figure (5.1%) is the second highest in baseball, though well shy of that of the Dodgers. However, for the four-year period between 2022 and 2025, no team has more committed salary already on the books. Will this inhibit the Yankees in any way, beyond a yearly tango with luxury tax thresholds? Probably not.
Projected wins: 96
2021 title odds: 10.6%
The Braves have fallen behind the Mets in quite a few preseason prognostications. While I get the excitement over the Mets, I’m not sure where the notion that the Braves will fall off is coming from. It’s not just their run of three straight division crowns. It’s also a consistently producing minor league system. Using Baseball America’s past organizational rankings, the Braves’ rolling five-year rating is tops in baseball entering this season. That status may be tough to maintain, but the five-year measure is the one that has the highest correlation with a team’s this-season outcome.
Projected wins: 93
2021 title odds: 8.5%
Injuries and free-agent losses have chipped away at the Astros. Nevertheless, this is a team that, from 2017 to 2019, posted a three-year winning percentage (.640) that was the highest of any team since the 1969-71 Baltimore Orioles. It then had a so-so 60-game stretch in 2020 that was rescued by the bloated playoff format. Houston then finished one game shy of the World Series. In other words, love or hate ’em, the window on these Astros is far from closed.
TIER 2: WE’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE
Teams in this group don’t project to land a top-two seed in their leagues but could easily end up in the top tier by season’s end.
Projected wins: 91
2021 title odds: 5.9%
No team’s playoff probabilities improved during spring training more than the Twins’. It’s nothing Minnesota did. That leap was part of the fallout of the serious injury suffered by Eloy Jimenez of the White Sox. Still, Minnesota remains a solid favorite in its division. The minor league system is solid, not just in the important five-year window but in the latest bout of rankings. The payroll is creeping up, but based on historical spending, the Twins shouldn’t be tapped out. Minnesota is not a sure thing, but it is very much built for sustainable success.
Projected wins: 90
2021 title odds: 4.9%
For much of the winter, it looked like the A’s were going to take a step back. But then they filled up the back of their bullpen after the loss of closer Liam Hendriks and plugged the hole at shortstop opened by Marcus Semien’s departure by swinging a trade for Elvis Andrus. Oakland’s payroll share (2.1%) is right in the sweet spot for the Billy Beane era, with perhaps a little room for an in-season boost. Oakland’s prospect ranking has always been a roller coaster, and right now, it’s in the low end of that ride. Oakland is built to win now, as it usually is, and the A’s will figure out 2022 when that time comes.
Projected wins: 91
2021 title odds: 4.8%
The Mets’ estimated payroll share (5.1%) is their highest since 2009 (5.6%). Their five-year rolling organizational ranking (21.0), according to BA, ranks 25th in the majors, New York’s lowest point since 2014. This team is very much geared up to win now. Now that we know the Francisco Lindor marriage is going to be a long-term one, it will be interesting to see what the path forward looks like. The Mets have traded and spent their way into contention, on paper, but it takes time to build a minor league pipeline to support a big league roster anchored by high-dollar stars. But that sentiment sounds a note too paranoid for the moment. The 2021 Mets may still have to coalesce into a ballclub, but on a spreadsheet, they look awfully good.
Projected wins: 91
2021 title odds: 4.7%
My model likes the Cubs better than most models do. Subjectively, I was not a fan of Chicago’s offseason approach, especially the Yu Darvish trade. Nevertheless, there is still a high floor for this team and plenty of big-time producers atop the roster. The rotation is a tough one to evaluate in a 2021 context, where a deficiency in strikeouts can look like a fatal flaw. My model sees a group that tends to outperform defense-independent measures (especially Kyle Hendricks) and a team defense that will support it well. If my model is wrong, then the trade deadline will be an active one for the Cubs, and they won’t be in this tier a year from now.
Projected wins: 91
2021 title odds: 3.2%
Only one team (the Yankees) has more committed salary on the books in the four-year period after this season than the Padres. They also have BA’s third-ranked system (No. 7 by Kiley McDaniel) and are the second-ranked organization by BA’s five-year rolling average. In addition, the Padres have an ace-level starter in Mike Clevinger spending this year in injury rehab. All of this is to say that spending splurges from the Padres will likely be more modest in the years to come, as their payroll share (4.5%) is already easily at its highest level this century. However, this is fine. The Padres have more talent flowing up from the minors and plenty of players on the big league roster still getting better. San Diego will be in the top two tiers for years to come after spending most of the past decade in tiers 4 and 5.
TIER 3: IN … BUT NOT ALL-IN
The odds look stacked against these teams in terms of immediate title contention, but it’s not impossible. Still, these clubs should approach the season with a longer-term mindset.
Projected wins: 86
2021 title odds: 2.0%
The Rays are the Rays. Their estimated payroll share is 1.8%. They haven’t hit 2% since 2015. Both BA and McDaniel rate their system as baseball’s best. The five-year rolling average of BA rankings puts Tampa Bay at No. 3. Teams with this profile usually don’t fare well in a projection model, but the Rays look just fine. And if they actually won 95-plus games, would anybody really be surprised?
Projected wins: 85
2021 title odds: 1.8%
The Angels are working on a six-year streak during which they’ve managed to land in the third or fourth tier despite running a top-10 payroll each season. The outlook for this chronically underachieving organization is moderately improved, as new GM Perry Minasian appears to have put together the kind stable starting rotation that has been missing in Orange County the past few years. The star power is there, but that’s been the case before. It’s the bottom half of the Angels’ roster that will determine their fate. Then it will be time to figure out what to do with the salary freed up by Albert Pujols’ expiring contract.
Projected wins: 83
2021 title odds: 0.9%
The White Sox’s probabilities took a major hit when Eloy Jimenez was injured, with a recovery time for his ruptured pectoral tendon presumed to be four to six months. If rookie Andrew Vaughn, whom McDaniel rates as having 30 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, can hold up in left field, then the hit might not be as severe. In that case, Tony La Russa might be able to use the DH slot to cobble together a semblance of Jimenez’s lost production. Then if the White Sox can hang in and Jimenez can get back by September or so, Chicago would become a team to be feared in October. But the White Sox have to get there first.
Projected wins: 83
2021 title odds: 0.8%
Cots estimates Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll at $50.3 million, which translates to an MLB share of 1.3%. Only the Pirates have a lower figure, and Pittsburgh is neck-deep in the rebuilding waters. The lowest Cleveland has been by this measure since 2000 is 1.7% in both 2004 and 2011. With a solid, cost-efficient rotation, a Hall of Fame manager and an All-Star third baseman in Jose Ramirez, a foundation to win remains in place even without Lindor. Yet the team will head into the season pretty much without a center fielder. It’s just sad.
Projected wins: 84
2021 title odds: 0.8%
A year ago, the Nationals were the defending champs. That 2019 triumph feels like an awful long time ago. The Nats floundered during the strange 2020 season but stayed somewhat aggressive over the winter, adding a number of Proven Veterans. Washington still has a starting rotation laden with big names. They still have an elite shortstop in Trea Turner and perhaps the game’s best hitter in Juan Soto. But the rotation is aging, and neither Turner nor Soto has been locked up for the long term. Max Scherzer can be a free agent after the season. The Nats’ prospect ranking has bottomed out. And a number of those Proven Veterans are being counted on to play major roles. Still, it could work this season. It better work this season.
Projected wins: 83
2021 title odds: 0.8%
The Brewers have become consistent winners during the David Stearns-Craig Counsell era, building a super-efficient organization that fits perfectly with the Milwaukee market. That is marked by a Rays-esque penchant for cycling through talent but with more of a payroll investment that allows Wisconsin fans to actually grow attached to their favorite players, like Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun. It’s always a tough needle to thread, and Milwaukee never projects as a 95-win juggernaut during the preseason. But their model is not my model, and their roster constantly outperforms what my model says Milwaukee is going to do. The long-term question is how long second- and third-tier contention can hold their fans’ interest if the Brewers aren’t able to break through with a pennant one of these years.
Projected wins: 83
2021 title odds: 0.8%
There was a lot of hand-wringing about the Cardinals’ rotation this spring. Maybe that will turn out to be warranted, given some injuries and poor spring performances in that area. Still, as I’ve written before, what holds the Cardinals back in my model isn’t their run prevention. It’s the run scoring. They need one or two hitters to break out in a big way, especially one of their young outfielders. If the Cardinals can score runs nearly as well as they should be able to prevent them, they can win the NL Central.
Projected wins: 80
2021 title odds: 0.6%
My system’s take on the Jays is disappointing. I’m saying that for me, not for their fans. I love watching this young team mash, and I’m excited about what the Toronto lineup will look like when everyone gets healthy. But I was not enamored with the club’s approach to building its pitching staff for 2021, and the outlook has not improved over the spring, after Robbie Ray came up with a bruised elbow and new closer Kirby Yates was lost for the season. The defense also looks shaky. For the Blue Jays to emerge as a full-season contender, they need to make serious strides in run prevention or else their dynamic lineup will have to outscore teams on a nightly basis.
TIER 4: WAIT ‘TIL NEXT YEAR
These teams are mostly recent rebuilders that have moved toward contention status and may be just a move or two away from climbing up in the tiers.
Projected wins: 79
2021 title odds: 0.4%
ETA: 2022
When you’re doing something like a tier exercise, you have to draw the lines somewhere. Teams kind of cluster together, so you draw the lines between the clusters. To me, the Red Sox feel almost like a Tier 3 team, even though the starting rotation looks like a complete mess as the season begins. Boston has a deep positional group, albeit one that really needs a bounce-back season from J.D. Martinez. There is enough talent to hang around wild-card contention, and at some point, Chris Sale will return. The approach to target 2022 as a return to prominence makes sense, but Red Sox fans shouldn’t write off the coming season just yet.
Projected wins: 78
2021 title odds: 0.2%
ETA: 2022
Of the teams that were still squarely in rebuild mode the past few seasons, the Royals are on track to be the first one to charge back into relevance. It can happen this season. They need to avoid setbacks like having to put Adalberto Mondesi on the IL the day before the season starts, which already has happened. However, this is a team on the rise, one whose short-term ceiling will be determined by the success of its young pitchers as the season goes along.
Projected wins: 77
2021 title odds: 0.1%
ETA: 2022
With the loss of Trevor Bauer, the Reds’ payroll share didn’t go down that much, but it also didn’t rise in the way you’d expect of a perennial also-ran trying to build on modest success and get back to the postseason. Cincinnati’s 77-win baseline carries with it a likely range of outcomes running from 67 to 87 wins. And if the Reds hit that latter number, which is a 90th percentile figure for them in my simulations, they could win the very winnable NL Central. Yet this still feels like an organization that’s feeling its way. Maybe that’s just my perception because I couldn’t help but notice that the Reds didn’t really bring a legitimate big league shortstop to spring training.
Projected wins: 76
2021 title odds: 0.1%
ETA: 2022
The Phillies’ payroll share (5%) is nearing the level where it stood during Philadelphia’s run of success during the Jimmy Rollins-Chase Utley-Ryan Howard years. The result is a roster with some real star power in Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. The former regime just was not able to fill out the rest of the roster, with last year’s total implosion of the bullpen serving as the most stark example of that. Well, Dave Dombrowski has been filling out winning rosters for decades. My model doesn’t see this year’s Phillies as being noticeably different from last year’s Phillies. But if Dombrowski succeeds with yet another team, it will once again be time to try to figure out what he knew that the models did not.
Projected wins: 75
2021 title odds: 0.1%
ETA: 2022
The Rangers were kneecapped by injuries in their bullpen during the spring, with key firemen Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez both going down for extended periods. It was rough news for an athletic club that has a chance to be mediocre, but to clear even that low bar there probably needs to be some overachievement from the pitching staff. Still, while the Texas system doesn’t rank as elite (McDaniel has the Rangers at No. 20), there are some good things happening at the lower levels. Third baseman Josh Jung should ascend to the bigs at some point in 2021. And with the second pick in June, the Rangers should land one of the Vanderbilt star hurlers, Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter. Finally, the Rangers have enough payroll flexibility after this season to make some splashes in free agency. Perhaps 2022 is an optimistic ETA, but if there is a path to get there that soon, why wait around?
Projected wins: 75
2021 title odds: 0.1%
ETA: 2022
Arizona’s payroll share has operated in a fairly narrow band (roughly 2% to 3.3% over the last 15 years). The distribution of the payroll has changed a lot since the top-heavy structure during the Zack Greinke era. The result is what you’d expect, a fairly deep roster that lacks high-end star power. For Arizona to break out of this tier in 2021, it will have to get a number of breakouts from hitters, as the run prevention looks decent and the run creation does not. However, there are some strong wild-card candidates in the NL (Padres, Mets, Nationals), and that, more than anything, might force the Snakes to look ahead to 2022.
Projected wins: 67
2021 title odds: 0.0%
ETA: 2022
The Marlins are in a good place. No, I don’t think they can return to the playoffs in 2021. That they made it last year and were competitive in doing so was a great story. But this pie needs to bake a little longer. Any chance to shock the world again would involve riding some young pitchers in a way that would not make sense. The Marlins recognize that it’s not the way to go, which is why they optioned out Sixto Sanchez to begin the season. Just enjoy watching the young Fish get better, knowing there is more talent on the way and a veritable clean payroll slate going forward. Plus, McDaniel rates the Marlins’ system as the second best in the game. These things are only signposts on the rebuilding road, but if you don’t see them, you’re in trouble. With the Marlins, you can see the signposts.
Projected wins: 70
2021 title odds: 0.0%
ETA: 2022
The Mariners’ payroll share for 2021 (1.9%) is the lowest it’s been this century. Only nine teams have a lower figure of committed dollars on the books for the 2022 to 2025 seasons. Seattle ranked second in this year’s BA prospect rankings and was sixth by McDaniel. Its five-year rolling average ranks 11th. This should be a season in which Seattle fans start to get a vision of what the future core is going to look like, and the options for augmenting that core going forward are numerable. It’s not going to happen in 2021, but the M’s are well positioned for a return to prominence sooner rather than later.
TIER 5: TWO YEARS AWAY … AT LEAST
There is work to be done, probably too much to hope for a serious run either this season or in 2022.
Projected wins: 70
2021 title odds: 0.0%
ETA: 2023
The Giants are an economic behemoth that has been slumbering the past couple of seasons. While some holdovers from San Francisco’s reign of glory last decade are enjoying the last of their spoils, the Giants’ brain trust has been overhauling everything under the hood. The prospect outlook has improved and is gathering momentum. And while the 2021 payroll remains high, especially for a team unlikely to contend, after this season their salary commitments fall off a table. With the Giants’ solid base of usable talent, a new set of organizational processes in full operation, a wave of prospects pushing up and a wealth of resources on hand to rebuild the top of the roster, don’t expect that burgeoning Padres-Dodgers rivalry in the NL West to remain a two-team affair for long.
Projected wins: 66
2021 title odds: 0.0%
ETA: 2023
If everything goes according to plan, the Tigers will have a rotation anchored by Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize for years to come. Depending on how things fall in the draft, that trio could be augmented by another exciting hurler like Leiter or Rocker. The lineup could be built around Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. That’s a lot of things to go right, but if it works out, the Tigers will have a payroll that’s lean enough to fill in the gaps with targeted spending. It’s kind of a common refrain in these comments, which you would expect. There were a number of teams rebuilding all at once, and they are working on similar timelines. Most of them have done the things you’re supposed to do, and the Tigers are one of them. Yet we know it’s probably not going to work out for all of them. In Detroit’s case, it has had Miguel Cabrera to keep fans engaged and serve as a bridge from one successful era to the next. That’s not nothing.
Projected wins: 65
2021 title odds: 0.0%
ETA: 2024
The Orioles have been following the first phases of their rebuild as if they found the blueprints for the process in a Vulcan archive. Thus they have been merciless at avoiding marginal spending, with useful, low-cost veterans like Renato Nunez, Hanser Alberto and Jonathan Villar set adrift the last couple of years. It’s not pretty in the short term, but the Orioles have a rising system, few long-term payroll commitments and another high draft pick in June. It’s still hard to envision how it all will look in the end, but for better or worse, count on this organization to stay the course.
Projected wins: 63
2021 title odds: 0.0%
ETA: 2024
Well, the Pirates have the not-spending-marginal-dollars part down pat. Pittsburgh ranks last in payroll share in 2021 and also has the lowest amount of committed dollars for the seasons thereafter. The process of building the talent pipeline is ongoing, but it will be bolstered in June when the Pirates select first overall in the draft.
TIER 6: THE ROCKIES
And … we have the Rockies.
Projected wins: 58
2021 title odds: 0.0%
ETA: 2025
Now, I’ve acknowledged that while no projection model I’ve seen, nor any betting market, thinks the Rockies will do anything but stink this season, my model is particularly hard on them. It’s not personal. It’s certainly nothing geographic — I’ve been a Denver Broncos fan since the days of the Orange Crush defense. Subjectively, it’s hard for me to see the Rockies as really being worse than the Orioles or Pirates. It’s also impossible for me to see this team as anything but lousy. But what’s really discouraging is that the Rockies have not behaved like a team that knows it’s this bad. The system is bottom-five, both for this season and in the five-year window. The payroll share is in the same general range that it’s been for the last decade, though the long-term commitments aren’t bad. The Rockies’ best player, Trevor Story, is likely headed for free agency or a trade. It’s impossible to really know how long a team will be on the rebuilding road when it hasn’t even realized it needs to start studying the map trying to find it.