Fantasy football highs and lows from NFL Week 1

Wilson was one of my top quarterback targets in fantasy drafts this summer due to a new Seahawks offense that would create more rhythm and timing throws for the veteran. And we saw examples of that on Sunday with Wilson throwing four touchdown passes — while registering 27.06 fantasy points — in the win over a very good Colts defense. Now, there’s going to be run/pass balance in this Seattle system. We know that. But look at the schemed vertical to Tyler Lockett (see the Next Gen Diagram below), the red zone throw to tight end Gerald Everett (another well-designed concept) or the ball location on the scoring toss to DK Metcalf. Wilson was pretty dialed-in here. And we know he can still play outside of structure when necessary. With a Week 2 matchup versus the Titans’ secondary, Wilson will jump into my Top 5 quarterback ranks. — Bowen

Jalen Hurts starts the season in style

Yes, that was a favorable matchup for Hurts against the Falcons’ defense. But let’s focus on the Eagles quarterback here within the structure of Philly’s new offensive system. Hurts was very efficient throwing the football in Atlanta (27-of-35 passing, 264 yards, three touchdowns). Schemed concepts there, plus the second-reaction throws Hurts can make when he moves from the pocket. Plus, he does bring an added element to the Philadelphia offense given his running traits. The second-year quarterback, who totaled 28.76 fantasy points in the win, finished with 62 yards rushing on seven carries. Even with a tougher matchup in Week 2 versus the 49ers’ defense, Hurts’ dual-threat ability, and the pass game structure I watched on Sunday, keep him in the QB1 mix. — Bowen

With those 28.76 points, Hurts now has 120.72 through his first five career NFL starts. That’s the fifth most by any quarterback through that many career starts, trailing only Deshaun Watson’s 130.40, Cam Newton’s 128.40, Justin Herbert’s 125.78 and Patrick Mahomes’ 125.66. — Cockcroft

Big surprises in the San Francisco 49ers’ passing game

Well, that was … unexpected. Fantasy managers made it quite clear during the preseason whom they preferred between Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, selecting the latter 59th overall on average but the former only 94th. In the season opener, however, Samuel played 83.6% of the snaps, ran 23 routes and totaled 31.9 PPR fantasy points, tops among wide receivers from the 1 p.m. ET games, while Aiyuk played just 47.3%, ran 13 routes and was shut out in terms of both fantasy points and targets. Trent Sherfield was a more productive fantasy option! Fantasy managers are a reactive bunch, so we can be sure that everyone will gravitate to Samuel at Aiyuk’s expense, and that’s perhaps a wise move considering these returns, especially with a similarly strong matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles upcoming. But doesn’t this feel like an offense that could swing in either direction unexpectedly at times during 2021? I wouldn’t read too much into Aiyuk’s disappearing act (a hamstring injury might have been to blame), other than that he’s now tough to trust in your Week 2 lineup, while Samuel should be a clear « go. » — Cockcroft

Kyler Murray stars in the high-flying Cardinals offense

Fantasy’s top-scoring quarterback from the 1 p.m. ET games continued his trend of great starts to the season, scoring 33.56 points to give him three consecutive Week 1 totals of at least 20 to begin his career — and his Cardinals are now 2-0-1 in those contests after easily upsetting the Tennessee Titans. Murray’s point total exceeded any he had in all but two of 32 games in 2019-20, and remember, he was on a record-setting pace during the first half of last season. A similar hot start could be in order, even with a somewhat challenging early schedule (@LAR, SF, @CLE in Weeks 4-6), as he flashed his dual-threat ability with 8.0 points rushing and a pair of third-quarter touchdown throws to Christian Kirk. — Cockcroft

Trouble in Tennessee?

Clearly, the big disappointment in Week 1 was the Titans’ stinker against the Cardinals, a game in which Tennessee was never really competitive on the scoreboard. No Titans player scored more than 14.9 PPR fantasy points — and that was A.J. Brown, whose total was padded by one of the few bright points, a 13-yard, third-quarter touchdown catch — and to put that into perspective, running back Derrick Henry (10.7 today) managed a larger score in 11 of 16 games in his big 2020. The offensive line got dominated — Chandler Jones had five sacks on his own — so it’d be understandable if fantasy managers of Titans players are concerned. We’ll remind: It can only get better from here, but this offense needs a major turnaround if it’s not going to cement its candidacy for disappointment of the year. It could be throwing a lot again in Week 2 facing a Seahawks offense that was rolling in the opener. — Cockcroft

Tristan, I think we have to look at the Titans’ lack of rhythm from a playcalling perspective in the first game without Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator. This unit looked disjointed, and the overall execution was poor. Yes, it’s just one week. But this offense needs the run and pass game to be married together to produce. And we simply didn’t see that on Sunday. That is concerning. — Bowen

Damien Harris could be a big deal for the Patriots

I know, I know, he’s a Patriots running back, but would it make you feel better to hear that Harris is the first Patriots running back with 23 carries in a game since Sony Michel did it in Week 6 of 2018? Sure, Harris had that crushing fumble on the team’s final possession, but on the whole he was still a much more effective runner than Rhamondre Stevenson or Brandon Bolden, with four runs clocked at 15-plus mph. I think there’s something here, to the extent that maybe — finally — we’ve got ourselves a Patriots running back with true RB2 potential. — Cockcroft

Tristan, I’m with you on Harris. He’s an easy fit for the Patriots’ old-school run game. A downhill runner with second-level juice, Harris plays with good contact balance, and he can handle heavy volume. He’s a flex play for me at this point, with RB2 upside in Non-PPR formats. — Bowen

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Quick hitters

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants: We knew Barkley’s workload would be reduced in his first game back since a season-ending knee injury last season. In the loss to the Broncos, Barkley checked in with only 3.7 PPR points, finishing with 27 total yards on 11 touches. Really, this is about patience for fantasy managers who roster Barkley. With an uptick in volume, and more usage in the pass game, Barkley will be in line to produce viable numbers in the lineup. — Bowen

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers: I expected the Saints’ defense to go man-heavy, with pressure schemes to heat up the pocket versus Rodgers. But I didn’t anticipate the poor decision-making or the overall lack of production from the Green Bay quarterback. Rodgers, who threw only five interceptions last season, tossed two picks today — on very questionable throws. Rodgers produced just 1.32 fantasy points in the loss, finishing 15-of-28 passing for 133 yards. The veteran quarterback has a good chance to bounce back next week in a very favorable matchup versus the Lions’ defense on Monday night. — Bowen

It was a historically bad performance for the veteran quarterback who has more than 4,000 career fantasy points on his résumé. Rodgers’ 1.32 points are the fewest he has had in any game he started that was neither a Week 17 game nor one he exited early due to injury. — Cockcroft

Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints: For only the second time in his seven-year NFL career, Winston passed for five touchdowns, and just like the last time (Week 11 of 2015), he wasn’t intercepted once. His 29.62 fantasy points represented his sixth most in a game, but be aware they came on only 20 pass attempts, and Taysom Hill did come in for a pair of goal-line plays that might’ve threatened Winston’s statistical output had they resulted differently. It’s a plus for Winston, for sure, but I’m not there yet as far as him being a viable weekly starting fantasy quarterback. — Cockcroft

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: His 5.9 PPR fantasy points during his NFL debut were certainly disappointing to his fantasy managers who drafted him 15th overall on average in ESPN leagues, but bear in mind that his matchup against the Buffalo Bills’ defense wasn’t exactly the best one he could ask. Of greater note was this: He played 100% of the team’s offensive snaps, as Benny Snell Jr. and Kalen Ballage remained on the sidelines, something that no running back — rookie or not — accomplished in 2020. The Steelers do very clearly regard Harris as their lead running back, and the role could grant him borderline RB1 status. He gets the Las Vegas Raiders next, a more favorable matchup. — Cockcroft

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: There has to be some concern here for Robinson after he registered 25 yards rushing — on only five carries — versus a rebuilding Texans defense. Remember, Robinson isn’t an explosive, big-play runner. He’s a grinder, a volume guy who needs the touches on the ground. However, playing behind a poor offensive front in Jacksonville, on a team that will have to push the ball through the air to compete, Robinson might start to slide down the ranks. — Bowen

D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions: Few expected the Lions to defeat the defensively sound San Francisco 49ers, but when game flow isn’t predicted to be in the running back’s favor, it’s encouraging to see the kind of result Swift delivered in Week 1. He played 67.9% of the Lions’ offensive snaps, a rate he exceeded just twice during his entire rookie season, ran 37 routes, saw a team-high 11 targets and generated 24.4 PPR fantasy points, a number he again exceeded just twice in 13 games as a rookie. It’s also notable that Swift totaled 11 carries to Jamaal Williams’ nine, just days after it was hinted that he might have a limited role after missing some preseason time due to an ankle injury. For all the talk that the Lions might use a committee to run the football, their likelihood of playing many snaps from behind does favor Swift, especially if your league weights his receptions (PPR, half-PPR, etc.). Expect another week of greater receiving than rushing contributions in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers. — Cockcroft

49ers running backs: I targeted Trey Sermon in all of my drafts. The fit is there in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, so is the pro running style. But with Sermon a healthy scratch today — which really surprised me after the preseason volume he saw — we need to look at Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco. With Raheem Mostert leaving the game with a knee injury, the rookie totaled 104 yards rushing on 19 carries. And you could see the explosive play juice he brings to the field on the 38-yard touchdown run. He can move, now. While I’m not giving up on Sermon after he was inactive in Week 1, Mitchell needs to be viewed as a must add in all scoring formats given the proven run game system under Shanahan. — Bowen

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys: Despite his producing just 39 total yards — on 13 touches — in the Thursday night loss to the Bucs, I’m not going to draw major conclusions on Zeke after that game. There wasn’t much daylight at all for Elliott on inside runs versus the Tampa defensive front. Running into traffic, there. And we saw how the Cowboys adjusted, going much more pass-heavy with Dak Prescott to play the favorable matchups versus the Bucs’ secondary. With a Week 2 matchup versus the Chargers, I expect Elliott to see 15-20 touches, and he’ll be on that RB1/RB2 line in my rankings. — Bowen

Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams, RBs, Denver Broncos: The final stat sheet will make this look like a clear win for Gordon, but consider that at one time, these running backs had split the carries evenly (11 apiece), and come game’s end, Williams had 14 to Gordon’s 11 and each played exactly half the team’s offensive snaps. Gordon did look quicker than he has in the recent past, with a pair of runs clocked 15-plus mph, but this has all the makings of a maddening committee, one tough to trust except when facing the weakest run defenses or when game flow will clearly tilt in Denver’s favor. Fortunately, that should remain the case in Week 2 as the team travels to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, so even with 10 to 12 carries apiece, each has high-end flex appeal and perhaps one will eventually emerge as the clear leader. — Cockcroft

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Forget the preseason concerns here with Chase, because the rookie wide receiver has the ability to create explosive plays. While he didn’t see high volume (only seven targets), Chase caught five passes for 101 yards, including a 50-yard touchdown throw from quarterback Joe Burrow on a straight go ball. Chase was good for 20.9 PPR points today, and with a matchup versus the Bears cornerbacks next week, Chase should be viewed as a solid Flex option. — Bowen

Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A somewhat lost point from Thursday’s NFL Kickoff game was the 33-year-old’s performance, despite his clear No. 3-wideout status in the Buccaneers’ offense. Brown played 64.1% of the team’s offensive snaps and ran 36 routes, but turned that into 23.7 PPR fantasy points. By comparison, Chris Godwin played 98.4%, ran 50 routes and had 23.5 points, while Mike Evans played 93.8%, ran 47 routes and had only 5.4 points. Tom Brady certainly looked in Brown’s direction often when they were both on the field, only days after coach Bruce Arians spoke quite favorably of Brown. Don’t make the mistake of assuming a No. 3 wideout can’t help you. — Cockcroft

Mark Ingram II, RB, Houston Texans: What had been a prospective backfield by committee might’ve gotten more clarity in Week 1, as Ingram managed 26 of 37 carries among Texans running backs, in a game in which the team unexpectedly dominated. It might vault him high on the Week 2 most-added list — he’s currently 11.0% rostered — but, while it’s clear he was prioritized over Phillip Lindsay, I don’t think the volume is all that repeatable. The Texans aren’t likely to have game flow on their side in 2021, and David Johnson ran 13 routes to Ingram’s four. That matters when you’re talking about a team likely to throw often. — Cockcroft