Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the 2022 Emmy Winners
(Photo by NBC)
Competition is fierce for the 74rd Primetime Emmy Awards that will be announced on Monday. Presented by the Television Academy and airing on NBC with a livestream on Peacock, the event is hosted by Kenan Thompson.
According to our predictions, the wins will be spread across numerous titles, networks, and streamers. If anyone is the big winner on Monday, we expect it will be Hulu and HBO.
Related: Print the Rotten Tomatoes 2022 Emmys Ballot
In the comedy categories, Abbott Elementary should make a splash along with Only Murders in the Building, while drama Succession will take multiple awards. Limited series Dopesick and The White Lotus also stand to collect a few trophies each.
The quality of the performances of the strongest contenders are a given in most of the acting categories, so we’ve spent less time on flattery and more focusing on the political considerations that may make a difference between two or more nominees. Read on to find out who we think will take home Emmys on Monday.
Disagree with our picks? Let us know who you think will win in the comments.
Outstanding Comedy Series
(Photo by Hulu)
What’s nominated?
98%
Abbott Elementary: Season 1
(2021)
Audience Score: 90%
100%
Barry: Season 3
(2022)
Audience Score: 88%
94%
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Season 11
(2021)
Audience Score: 70%
100%
Hacks: Season 2
(2022)
Audience Score: 87%
92%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4
(2022)
Audience Score: 64%
100%
Only Murders in the Building: Season 1
(2021)
Audience Score: 93%
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
Audience Score: 82%
100%
What We Do in the Shadows: Season 3
(2021)
Audience Score: 91%
What will win? Only Murders in the Building
And why? Experts seem to be evenly betting on Abbott Elementary and last year’s winner Ted Lasso, but we’re bucking their predictions with our pick, Only Murders in the Building, in part because of its Certified Fresh 100% score, the highest Audience Score of all of the nominees, and beloved stars that cross generations. Some of the shine is off last year’s winner Ted Lasso, as the personal issues of its star and executive producer Jason Sudeikis have become part of the awards conversation and tarnished the show’s feel-good image. Watch for Hacks to possibly upset all of our expectations.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Pamela Littky/ABC)
Who’s nominated?
92%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4
(2022)
– Rachel Brosnahan
98%
Abbott Elementary: Season 1
(2021)
– Quinta Brunson
85%
The Flight Attendant: Season 2
(2022)
– Kaley Cuoco
100%
The Great: Season 2
(2021)
– Elle Fanning
100%
Insecure: Season 5
(2021)
– Issa Rae
100%
Hacks: Season 2
(2022)
– Jean Smart
Who will win? Brunson
And why? Last year’s winner Smart is in a close race with Brunson, according to expert predictions, but we’re expecting Abbott Elementary creator and star Brunson to be rewarded for the ABC comedy’s “empathetic yet sidesplitting critique of the U.S. education system,” according to the series’ season 1 Critics Consensus. It perhaps should not be part of the equation in this category that Brunson’s character Janine Teagues is simply more likeable than Smart’s acerbic Deborah Vance, but we expect that affection along with widespread and deserved admiration for Brunson’s achievements to translate into a trophy. On the Tomatometer front, three of the six nominees’ series are Certified Fresh at 100%, including Hacks. Abbott Elementary missed that distinction by only one negative review, which was from National Review’s Armond White, a critic who seemingly courts controversy with contrarian opinions and whose opinion here is, therefore, easily dismissed. To make our predictions, even in the acting categories, we’re also considering the Audience Score for the eligible seasons, and Abbott Elementary has a slight edge with 90% compared to Hacks’ 87%. It’s safe to say this category is solidly a two-person race, despite the popularity of each of the other nominated actresses in the industry and the fact that the eligible seasons of both The Great and Insecure boast Tomatometer and Audience scores in line with Hacks.
Read also: 2022 Fall TV Survey: The Most Anticipated Returning Series, New Shows, and Films
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Craig Blankenhorn/Hulu)
Who’s nominated?
97%
Atlanta: Season 3
(2022)
– Donald Glover
100%
Barry: Season 3
(2022)
– Bill Hader
100%
The Great: Season 2
(2021)
– Nicholas Hoult
100%
Only Murders in the Building: Season 1
(2021)
– Steve Martin
100%
Only Murders in the Building: Season 1
(2021)
– Martin Short
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
– Jason Sudeikis
Who will win? Martin
And why? Despite his protestations, Sudeikis’ personal drama has likely torpedoed his chances of getting a trophy this year — the stink of hypocrisy now hangs in the air between art and artist. We’re betting that Steve Martin and Bill Hader are now frontrunners and that Martin has an edge because of the likeability of his character — look at that face! — and his cross-generational appeal.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Pamela Littky/ABC)
Who’s nominated?
92%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4
(2022)
– Alex Borstein
100%
Hacks: Season 2
(2022)
– Hannah Einbinder
98%
Abbott Elementary: Season 1
(2021)
– Janelle James
79%
Saturday Night Live: Season 47
(2021)
– Kate McKinnon
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
– Sarah Niles
98%
Abbott Elementary: Season 1
(2021)
– Sheryl Lee Ralph
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
– Juno Temple
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
– Hannah Waddingham
Who will win? James
And why? The experts are split over whether James will win the category or one of the Hannahs will take it. Last year’s winner Waddingham has a Ted Lasso problem, unfortunately, which does not in any way diminish her performance — the winds of change, how they sometimes blow. To us, that leaves Einbinder and James, and we’re guessing the latter will prevail because of the phenomenon that Abbott Elementary has become and the signal sent by its superior Audience Score. This is one category, however, in which we could be dead wrong and a seeming three-way split could elevate a another nominee. Could previous winners in this category Kate McKinnon or Alex Borstein receive a boost?
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Colin Hutton/Apple TV+)
Who’s nominated?
100%
Barry: Season 3
(2022)
– Anthony Carrigan
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
– Brett Goldstein
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
– Toheeb Jimoh
98%
Ted Lasso: Season 2
(2021)
– Nick Mohammed
92%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4
(2022)
– Tony Shalhoub
98%
Abbott Elementary: Season 1
(2021)
– Tyler James Williams
100%
Barry: Season 3
(2022)
– Henry Winkler
79%
Saturday Night Live: Season 47
(2021)
– Bowen Yang
Who will win? Goldstein
And why? Goldstein and Winkler have split experts’ opinions on a winner in this category. We think Goldstein will pull it off despite the shadow cast over Ted Lasso this year — Roy Kent is his own phenomenon and the character had a dynamic arc in season 2 that should help the actor prevail.
Outstanding Drama Series
(Photo by HBO)
What’s nominated?
99%
Better Call Saul: Season 6
(2022)
Audience Score: 95%
82%
Euphoria: Season 2
(2022)
Audience Score: 81%
85%
Ozark: Season 4
(2022)
Audience Score: 80%
97%
Severance: Season 1
(2022)
Audience Score: 93%
95%
Squid Game: Season 1
(2021)
Audience Score: 83%
88%
Stranger Things: Season 4
(2022)
Audience Score: 88%
97%
Succession: Season 3
(2021)
Audience Score: 87%
100%
Yellowjackets: Season 1
(2021)
Audience Score: 78%
What will win? Succession
And why? We’d love nothing better than to see Better Call Saul or Ozark finish off their runs with a gold statue, but Succession will not be denied the prize, no matter how much some people are betting on Squid Game. Tomatometer and Audience scores taken together, Saul and Severance are in the strongest positions, but we still think the industry will reward Succession’s uniformly strong ensemble cast, powerful writing, and complex, topical storyline.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
(Photo by Eddy Chen/HBO)
Who’s nominated?
55%
Killing Eve: Season 4
(2022)
– Jodie Comer
85%
Ozark: Season 4
(2022)
– Laura Linney
100%
Yellowjackets: Season 1
(2021)
– Melanie Lynskey
55%
Killing Eve: Season 4
(2022)
– Sandra Oh
67%
The Morning Show: Season 2
(2021)
– Reese Witherspoon
82%
Euphoria: Season 2
(2022)
– Zendaya
Who will win? Zendaya
And why? The Euphoria star, winner in this category in 2020, returned with another transcendent performance in season 2. Lynskey’s and Linney’s names have surfaced as major challengers, but we’re betting on Zendaya, even though the series overall lags behind Yellowjackets and Ozark in Tomatometer score.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
(Photo by Peter Kramer/HBO)
Who’s nominated?
85%
Ozark: Season 4
(2022)
– Jason Bateman
97%
Succession: Season 3
(2021)
– Brian Cox
95%
Squid Game: Season 1
(2021)
– Lee Jung-jae
99%
Better Call Saul: Season 6
(2022)
– Bob Odenkirk
97%
Severance: Season 1
(2022)
– Adam Scott
97%
Succession: Season 3
(2021)
– Jeremy Strong
Who will win? Cox
And why? As much goodwill as Odenkirk has for his final season and for powering through a heart attack to complete it, there’s no denying the impact of Cox’s rollercoaster (in a good way) performance on season 3 of Succession. Lee has garnered as much recognition as Odenkirk and Cox, but we expect that Television Academy voters are going to reward Cox for a layered, precise, and all-around superior performance.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
(Photo by AMC)
Who’s nominated?
97%
Severance: Season 1
(2022)
– Patricia Arquette
85%
Ozark: Season 4
(2022)
– Julia Garner
95%
Squid Game: Season 1
(2021)
– Jung Ho-Yeon
100%
Yellowjackets: Season 1
(2021)
– Christina Ricci
99%
Better Call Saul: Season 6
(2022)
– Rhea Seehorn
82%
Euphoria: Season 2
(2022)
–Sydney Sweeney
Who will win? Seehorn
And why? What happens when a category offers so much talent that not one of the actors dominates the buzz? We turn to the Tomatometer and Audience scores to help us decide, that’s what. By that measure, Seehorn take the category. The method is maybe one step up from throwing a dart in this case, however, and there’s a good chance that any one of the other contenders could surprise us here.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
(Photo by Macall B. Polay/HBO)
Who’s nominated?
97%
Succession: Season 3
(2021)
– Nicholas Braun
67%
The Morning Show: Season 2
(2021)
– Billy Crudup
97%
Succession: Season 3
(2021)
– Kieran Culkin
95%
Squid Game: Season 1
(2021)
– Park Hae-soo
97%
Succession: Season 3
(2021)
– Matthew Macfadyen
97%
Severance: Season 1
(2022)
– John Turturro
97%
Severance: Season 1
(2022)
– Christopher Walken
95%
Squid Game: Season 1
(2021)
– Oh Yeong-su
Who will win? Macfadyen
And why? This category appears to be a battle between Tom Wambsgans and Roman Roy. Macfadyen and Culkin have both previously been nominated in the category for those roles, but have taken no wins. This seems to be their year. We’re betting on Macfadyen because, just as Tom upped his game in the season, Macfadyen also unleashed a new dimension in his portrayal of the character. It’s difficult to imagine that any of the other nominees will be able to take this prize away from either of the two Succession actors.
Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series
(Photo by Hulu)
What’s nominated?
88%
Dopesick: Season 1
(2021)
Audience Score: 93%
89%
The Dropout: Limited Series
(2022)
Audience Score: 81%
64%
Inventing Anna: Limited Series
(2022)
Audience Score: 35%
79%
Pam & Tommy: Miniseries
(2022)
Audience Score: 66%
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
Audience Score: 73%
What will win? Dopesick
And why? The White Lotus comes into this competition with so much love from Hollywood; in fact, a good number of TV critics are betting it will take the award here. An almost equal number are betting on Dopesick. We’re looking at the Audience Score — 93% for Dopesick and 73% for The White Lotus — and betting the Hulu drama will be rewarded for its stellar performances and compelling examination of a despicable crime against the American people.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
(Photo by Beth Dubber/Hulu)
Who’s nominated?
93%
The Staircase: Limited Series
(2022)
– Toni Collette
64%
Inventing Anna: Limited Series
(2022)
– Julia Garner
79%
Pam & Tommy: Miniseries
(2022)
– Lily James
69%
Impeachment: American Crime Story: Impeachment
(2021)
– Sarah Paulson
94%
Maid: Limited Series
(2021)
– Margaret Qualley
89%
The Dropout: Limited Series
(2022)
– Amanda Seyfried
Who will win? Seyfried
And why? Though James and Paulson each pulled off impressive transformations to portray their real-life characters, “Seyfried’s disquieting portrayal of Elizabeth Holmes brings fresh blood to this retelling of recent history,” according to Rotten Tomatoes’ Critics Consensus of the limited series.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
(Photo by Antony Platt/Hulu)
Who’s nominated?
93%
The Staircase: Limited Series
(2022)
– Colin Firth
86%
Under the Banner of Heaven: Limited Series
(2022)
– Andrew Garfield
83%
Scenes From a Marriage: Limited Series
(2021)
– Oscar Isaac
88%
Dopesick: Season 1
(2021)
– Michael Keaton
98%
Station Eleven: Limited Series
(2021)
– Himesh Patel
79%
Pam & Tommy: Miniseries
(2022)
– Sebastian Stan
Who will win? Keaton
And why? With such great performances in this category, Keaton has no right to so thoroughly dominate. And yet he does. If anyone could take this away from him, Firth and Garfield are the top candidates.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
(Photo by Gene Page/Hulu)
Who’s nominated?
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Connie Britton
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Jennifer Coolidge
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Alexandra Daddario
88%
Dopesick: Season 1
(2021)
– Kaitlyn Dever
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Natasha Rothwell
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Sydney Sweeney
88%
Dopesick: Season 1
(2021)
– Mare Winningham
Who will win? Dever
And why? We absolutely get the love that Coolidge is bringing into this contest for her role as bereaved, lovelorn, and entitled Tanya. We can’t help but think, however, that Dever had a heavier lift in her Dopesick role as OxyContin addict/Purdue Pharma victim Betsy Mallum. We’ll see Monday if the Television Academy agreed.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
(Photo by Mario Perez/HBO)
Who’s nominated?
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Murray Bartlett
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Jake Lacy
88%
Dopesick: Season 1
(2021)
– Will Poulter
79%
Pam & Tommy: Miniseries
(2022)
– Seth Rogen
88%
Dopesick: Season 1
(2021)
– Peter Sarsgaard
88%
Dopesick: Season 1
(2021)
– Michael Stuhlbarg
89%
The White Lotus: Season 1
(2021)
– Steve Zahn
Who will win? Bartlett
And why? Bartlett’s thorough unraveling as resort manager Armond happens over the course of the season, but somehow also feels unexpectedly swift — a downward spiral with trapdoors and hidden rooms. It’s an acting magic trick that Bartlett pulls off effortlessly. Who could deny him this prize? If anyone, Sarsgaard.
The 74th Emmy Awards ceremony airs live on Monday, September 12 at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET on NBC and livestreamed on Peacock.
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