Predicting how the Premier League’s race for Europe will play out
As we enter the final third of the 2022-23 season, the most lucrative spots in the Premier League table are still up for grabs.
Well, one or two of them are.
As things stand, 10 points separate Tottenham Hotspur in fourth (45 points) from Brentford and Brighton in eighth and ninth (35 points) — but you can expect the pack to shuffle multiple times before the music stops in the early evening of Sunday, May 28.
Just as we did for the Premier League’s relegation predictions, let’s return to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasted league table.
This table is first established by forecasting the outcome of each of the remaining fixtures, based on the strength of the respective teams. From those predictions, FiveThirtyEight’s model runs simulations to play out the remaining league season 20,000 times to calculate an overall predicted final league table.
Arsenal and Manchester City fans can rest easy, knowing that it would take a cataclysmic turn in form for either of those two to slip out of the Champions League spots — both have a 99 per cent chance of securing a top-four finish.
Manchester United are also odds-on to make the cut and return to UEFA’s blue-riband club competition, and have an outside shout of a title push in the final weeks of the season. Following their Carabao Cup final win last weekend, the mood at Old Trafford is refreshingly positive under first-year manager Erik ten Hag.
Tottenham are the current favourites to round out the Champions League contingent, with a favourable run-in likely to boost their chances above their rivals for a top-four spot.
So, let’s take a closer look at those pushing to play European football next season and try and spot some patterns.
As always, if there are any unfamiliar stats that need a bit more explaining, check out our handy guide.
Current position: First
Predicted final position: First
This will be a formality, given Arsenal have that 99 per cent chance of finishing in the top four, per FiveThirtyEight’s model.
While this is the least that Arsenal fans currently expect this season as they push for their first title in 19 years, manager Mikel Arteta would surely have shaken hands on a top-four finish at the start of the season having just missed out on one last May.
Arsenal are having one of their most impressive campaigns in a long time, and their underlying numbers show how considered they are in their playing style — able to dominate the ball, spring forward with pace and purpose, and give little away at the other end of the pitch.
Arsenal are the poster-boys for the “trust the process” campaign, which is reflected in their 10-game rolling expected goals for and against since their former captain Arteta returned to take over as head coach in December 2019.
While performances were initially mixed as Arteta guided Arsenal out of the brief Unai Emery era, they have consistently created more chances than they have conceded for over a season now while making the leap from being top-four contenders to title challengers.
Top-four is, as stated above, all but secured, allowing Arsenal to start their transfer planning for the summer.
It’s a straight shootout for the Premier League title, though, and it’s still so difficult to call.
Remaining fixtures
Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Leeds United (H), Liverpool (A), West Ham (A), Southampton (H), Manchester City (A), Chelsea (H), Newcastle (A), Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H)
Current position: Second
Predicted final position: Second
A similarly redundant exercise from the perspective of the top four here — Manchester City will finish in the top two.
That they have not hit the devastating heights of last season is not a discussion for today. However, the fact that City’s longest winning streak in the 2022-23 Premier League is just three games long does show just how much they have lacked consistency in their results as they try to win a third straight title, their fifth in Pep Guardiola’s seven seasons as manager and seventh in 12 years overall.
Despite some teething issues in having the same fluidity with a fixed No 9 up front, City continue to dominate possession and territory while locking it down at both ends.
Our friends at FiveThirtyEight currently give City a 40 per cent chance of making it three in a row, behind Arsenal’s 57 per cent chance of being champions.
Finishing top-four is simply a procession from here. City have bigger fish to fry. Continental fish.
Remaining fixtures
Newcastle (H), Crystal Palace (A), Liverpool (H), Southampton (A), Leicester (H), Brighton (A), Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Leeds (H), Everton (A), Chelsea (H), Brentford (A). To be arranged: West Ham (H).
Current position: Third
Predicted final position: Third
A genuine title challenge might still be just out of United’s reach this season, but the steps they have taken in Ten Hag’s first year have been hugely impressive.
After a hangover from the end of last season — losing their first two Premier League games, including that debacle at Brentford — United have slowly improved their output at both ends of the pitch.
As you can see below, these performances have been built on strong displays at the back, with the signings of Casemiro and Lisandro Martinez transforming their defensive structure — United have suffered just one Premier League defeat in 11 games.
Going forward, United have been devastating in their counter-attacking play. Spearheaded by Marcus Rashford’s red-hot form, they have been clinical in maximising their opportunities in working the ball from back to front.
Their 3.7 direct attacks per 90 minutes — defined as possessions that start in a team’s own half and result in either a shot or touch inside the opposition penalty area within 15 seconds — are the most of any of the 20 top-flight teams this season. In general build-up play, United do not look to move the ball quickly upfield, but when the opportunity presents itself, they spring into action.
The trip to arch-rivals Liverpool on Sunday arguably means more to Jurgen Klopp’s home side as they look to improve their slim hopes of finishing in the top four — but United will be determined to keep the momentum going.
Beyond that, United’s final five currently scheduled games against Aston Villa, West Ham, Wolves, Bournemouth and Fulham (there is also a trip to Brighton to fit in somewhere) are likely to mean they end their domestic campaign on a high with a return to the Champions League secured.
Remaining fixtures
Liverpool (A), Southampton (H), Newcastle (A), Brentford (H), Everton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Chelsea (H), Tottenham (A), Aston Villa (H), West Ham (A), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Fulham (H). To be arranged: Brighton (A).
Current position: Fourth
Predicted final position: Fourth
Despite winning four of their past five Premier League games, Spurs have not been hugely convincing in recent weeks.
It might be the recency effect of their painful FA Cup last-16 loss to Championship side Sheffield United in midweek, but they continuously flatter to deceive, just as they look like they have turned a corner.
The up-and-down nature of their entire campaign is reflected in their underlying numbers which have also been inconsistent.
The quality of their chances created is on a downward trajectory, with their current 10-game rolling average expected goals against being higher than the attacking equivalent for the first time since head coach Antonio Conte first took charge in November 2021.
As things stand, Tottenham are in the driving seat to finish fourth for a second season running, in what has been a difficult year for them on and off the field. FiveThirtyEight gives Conte’s side a 42 per cent chance of being in the Champions League spots after their final game away to Leeds United, with some favourable fixtures ahead.
In fact, using FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings — which essentially provide a number for each team’s overall strength — Spurs have the easiest run-in among all 20 clubs.
If they are to be knocked out of the Champions League by AC Milan on Wednesday (they trail 1-0 after the first leg at San Siro), it might not be the worst thing for their top-four hopes.
Just as was the case last season, their ability to focus on a single competition might just see them pick up some form down the home straight.
Remaining fixtures
Wolves (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Southampton (A), Everton (A), Brighton (H), Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H), Liverpool (A), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H), Leeds (A).
Current position: Fifth
Predicted final position: Fifth
When you look at Newcastle’s underlying numbers, you are reminded of just how impressive they have been this season — and of just what a great job Eddie Howe has done as head coach since he arrived at St James’ Park in November 2021.
Looking at their 10-game rolling averages on expected goals for and against, we can see that this is the longest period that Newcastle have created higher-quality chances than they have conceded under Howe — built on strong defensive foundations that have seen them keep a Premier League-best 12 clean sheets.
However, the goals have dried up for them since the new year, with Newcastle scoring only three times in the past seven Premier League games — only one of which they’ve won.
The fact they take the sixth-highest volume of shots and concede the fifth-highest volume of shots is an indication that their current league position is about where it should be.
FiveThirtyEight predict a fifth-placed finish for Newcastle, with a Europa League spot being a fantastic achievement for all concerned on Tyneside. However, if there is an outside chance to sneak into the top four, Howe’s men must be ready to pounce if Spurs slip up.
Remaining fixtures
Manchester City (A), Wolves (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Manchester United (H), West Ham (A), Brentford (A), Aston Villa (A), Tottenham (H), Everton (A), Southampton (H), Arsenal (H), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Chelsea (A). To be arranged: Brighton (H).
Current position: Sixth
Predicted final position: Sixth
How the mighty have fallen.
This time last year, we were discussing the potential of Liverpool’s chances of completing an unprecedented quadruple as they went on to play in all 63 possible games.
Their 2021-22 season was a marathon, and they truly hit the wall in this one.
There are reasons for Liverpool fans to feel optimistic, with their outgoing director of research Ian Graham, speaking at FT Live’s Business of Football Summit this week, saying: “In this situation where the team is going through a difficult time but the underlying numbers and performances aren’t as bad as results would suggest, that’s the time when it’s nice to be the data person.
“Our underlying performances are good, and in the long term you should worry about underlying performances, not the results in the last three games.”
Liverpool have conceded more goals already (28), after 24 of the 38 games, than in two of their last four complete Premier League seasons, with their expected goals against number creeping up to levels higher than it has been for a long time and their chance creation flatlining.
There are a few green shoots of recovery, though, with four straight Premier League clean sheets providing a better foundation for Liverpool’s attack to start clicking. However, Klopp’s men have some tricky fixtures to navigate, including games against Manchester City, Chelsea (both away) and Arsenal in eight days at the start of next month.
FiveThirtyEight predict an outside chance of 25 per cent for Liverpool to finish in the top four. They went on a late charge two seasons ago to secure Champions League qualification after a similarly difficult campaign. Surely they can’t do it again?
Remaining fixtures
Manchester United (H), Bournemouth (A), Manchester City (A), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Leeds (A), Nottingham Forest (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H), Brentford (H), Leicester (A), Aston Villa (H), Southampton (A). To be arranged: Fulham (H).
Brighton & Hove Albion
Current position: Eighth
Predicted final position: Seventh
A first-ever top-four finish might be too much to ask of Brighton, but the way they are playing under Roberto De Zerbi is worthy of the club’s first European qualification in some form — whether that is the Europa League or the Europa Conference League.
De Zerbi picked up where predecessor Graham Potter left off when he moved to Chelsea in September, ensuring that Brighton have consistently created higher-quality chances than they have conceded across a 10-game average.
A considered build-up, with the ability to bait the opposition press and transition with pace and purpose is what Brighton are all about. Their stylistic metrics bear this out and show that the process looks very strong under De Zerbi.
FiveThirtyEight tip Brighton to finish seventh, which would be their best-ever finish in the English football pyramid. It would also mean a European spot as things stand, but they do have some tricky fixtures to navigate before getting ahead of themselves — with Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City all to come.
Remaining fixtures
West Ham (H), Leeds (A), Crystal Palace (H), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham (A), Chelsea (A), Manchester City (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H), Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Southampton (H), Aston Villa (A). To be arranged: Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H).
Current position: Seventh
Predicted final position: Ninth
Considering their two previous post-promotion seasons in the Premier League, Fulham fans would have been happy to finish outside the relegation spots on their third return to the top flight in five years, but here we are. Currently seventh, a push for a European spot looks like a realistic possibility, even if a top-four finish looks out of reach.
It is worth noting that Fulham’s underlying numbers do paint a slightly different picture to the league table.
While overperformance should never be a bad thing, it does provide a good signal that things might regress a little in the future.
Fulham have scored five goals more than the quality of their chances created would suggest, and conceded nearly 12 goals fewer than they should have based on the chances they have conceded.
No team in the division have outperformed their defensive record more than Marco Silva’s men. But nobody associated with Fulham will care too much about that, as it has been a season to remember for them, whatever happens from here on in.
Fulham were not supposed to be pushing for a European spot on their return to the Premier League, so the fact they are in that conversation in March shows how much of a good job Silva has done.
FiveThirtyEight predict they will just miss out on Europe. But what a season it will have been for them.
Remaining fixtures
Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Bournemouth (A), West Ham (H), Everton (A), Leeds (H), Aston Villa (A), Manchester City (H), Leicester (H), Southampton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Manchester United (A). To be arranged: Liverpool (A).
Current position: Ninth
Predicted final position: Eighth
Sure, we might be talking about an outside shout for Brentford to make the European spots, let alone the top four, but it goes to show how strong their season has been.
As you can see by Brentford’s underlying numbers, their games tend to be tight and fiercely contested, with the west Londoners often creating as many chances as they concede — underlined by the fact they have drawn 11 times this season in 23 outings, which is the joint-most (with Newcastle) in the Premier League.
Their stylistic metrics are something to behold.
With their strong set-piece threat and a direct style, no teams enjoy coming up against Brentford.
Not only do Thomas Frank’s side average the highest shot quality in the league (0.14 xG per shot), they also concede the lowest shot quality on goal (0.08 xG per shot conceded).
Put simply, Brentford maximise their strengths and minimise their weaknesses — at both ends of the pitch.
Their next game? Neighbours and fellow European contenders Fulham make the short trip to the Gtech Community Stadium on Monday for a match that could knock either side out of the chase for those coveted spots in the UEFA competitions.
FiveThirtyEight understandably barely give them a sniff of Champions League qualification, but even a top-half finish would be a huge success — building on their 13th place a year ago in what was the club’s first top-flight season since the 1940s — as Brentford’s trajectory continues to soar.
Remaining fixtures
Fulham (H), Everton (A), Southampton (A), Leicester (H), Brighton (A), Manchester United (A), Newcastle (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (H), Chelsea (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Liverpool (A), West Ham (H), Tottenham (A), Manchester City (H).
(Top photo: Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)