Fantasy Football Ultimate Draft Board

Fantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible values, but we all know those special players exist whom we badly want on our squad.

Whether it’s the young up-and-coming wide receiver on our favorite team, a sleeper running back no one is talking about or this year’s big breakout at tight end, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process.

This round-by-round analysis will give you an idea of what’s going through my head on draft day, headlined by those players I have circled on my cheat sheet.

For a more philosophical look at the 2021 fantasy football landscape, including strategies for drafting, trading and working waivers in all types of formats, be sure to check out the 2021 fantasy football playbook.

Here it is: My personal recipe for the first step toward a 2021 fantasy football championship.

The Core

Round 1: Travis Kelce

The first round is always the hardest part of this exercise, as the pick is primarily determined by our draft slot. If I land the first overall pick, the choice is easy: Christian McCaffrey, who scored 156 more fantasy points than any other RB in 2019 and 12 more than any other back during three active weeks last season.

Dalvin Cook is the second overall pick in most drafts (the right call), but it gets trickier from that point forward. Running backs remain popular first-round selections, with Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones all regularly off the board in the top 13 picks. That totals up to 10 RBs, with wideouts Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, and tight end Kelce the exceptions.

If I’m picking in the middle-to-late stages of the round and Kelce is still on the board, it’s hard to pass him up. Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target has paced the tight end position in fantasy points in each of the past five seasons. That shows up in his 2021 projection, as I have him with 64 more points than any other tight end. In fact, his projection of 306 puts him more than 100 points ahead of midrange TE1 options like Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts. Seem outrageous? Last season, Kelce’s total of 313 points was more than the combined total (309) of the TE7 (Mike Gesicki) and TE8 (Rob Gronkowski). That’s a massive, massive edge.

Though Kelce is on my radar here, there are plenty of values at tight end throughout the draft, so I’m OK with grabbing a back or wideout. Barkley and Taylor are names to watch, as they have plummeted from early-to-mid-first-round locks to the Round 1-2 turn. Yes, Barkley might be limited to begin the season and Taylor might start slow with Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson potentially missing time, but both are among the league’s best talents at the position with paths to heavy usage (especially Barkley). Both are potential league winners still worth a first-round investment.

Round 2: Antonio Gibson

Bold prediction alert: Antonio Gibson will lead the running back position in fantasy points this season.

Though it’s a « bold » take, I certainly think it’s possible. The second-year back was outstanding as a third-round rookie, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and scoring 11 touchdowns on 170 carries. This from a guy who had 33 carries in college. Gibson was targeted « only » 44 times, which is a number that could rise significantly considering he is a converted wide receiver. With a rise in playing time (he played only 47% of the snaps in his 13 full games) and passing-game work, the sky is the limit for Gibson.

Not buying the hype on Washington’s lead back? No worries. One of the reasons I’m comfortable leaving the first round without a running back is the talent available at the position in the second and third rounds. One (or sometimes two) of the aforementioned first-round backs will almost always make it past the turn, plus we can also get our hands on the likes of Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and, of course, Gibson.

As noted, there are plenty of tight end values throughout the draft, and Darren Waller in the late stages of the second round is one of them. We also can’t go wrong by grabbing a top-end wide receiver like Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown.

Round 3: D’Andre Swift or Miles Sanders

We’re now into the third round and, believe it or not, we actually have some respectable running backs available to us. Swift and Sanders are my favorites, as both have RB1 upside. Swift was delivering top-10 numbers at RB during his 12 full games as a rookie and was RB18 for the season despite playing only 37% of the snaps. Sanders, who is starting to trend toward the fourth round, was RB11 during the 11 weeks he played in full. Both are positioned for larger touch totals in 2021.

Though Swift and Sanders are my favorite RB targets here, David Montgomery (fantasy’s RB4 last season), J.K. Dobbins and Chris Carson are all solid fallback options. If I pivot to wide receiver, Terry McLaurin is my favorite choice, but Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson II and CeeDee Lamb — especially with Amari Cooper not fully healthy — are fine options, as well.

Round 4: Pick a wide receiver! Adam Thielen, Diontae Johnson, etc.

Last year in this very same column, I wrote the following: « If we don’t draft a wide receiver in the fourth round this year, we’re doing it wrong. » Our options in that round? Thielen (finished 10th), JuJu Smith-Schuster (16th). Calvin Ridley (fifth), Cooper Kupp (26th), A.J. Brown (12th), Robert Woods (14th), Courtland Sutton (injured) and occasionally Cooper (15th).

That obviously worked out very well, and the fourth round remains a hotbed for WR value again in 2021. Kupp, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, DJ Moore and Tyler Lockett are all available in this range, and Mike Evans, Woods and occasionally Cooper often are, as well. They are all good targets, but my favorites from the tier are Thielen and Johnson.

Thielen was my top fourth-round target last year and, despite the emergence of Justin Jefferson, the veteran went on to lead the NFL in end zone targets while completing his third top-10 fantasy campaign in four seasons. He’s in a similar spot this season with age (31) the only minor concern.

If we want to go younger, Johnson is a terrific target here. The 24-year-old was Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target last season, as he ranked seventh at wide receiver with 144 targets. Despite struggles with injuries, drops and horrific efficiency, Johnson was fantasy’s No. 4 WR during 12 full games.

Round 5: Brandon Aiyuk

I could’ve gone a lot of directions here. Josh Allen is going at the Round 4-5 turn and is worth consideration if he falls to the fifth. Tight ends Pitts, Andrews and Hockenson are in range if we’re picking late in the round. RBs Darrell Henderson Jr., Kareem Hunt, Javonte Williams and even Myles Gaskin are also viable.

Same as in the fourth round, however, the most value in this range comes from the wide receiver position. The top options are Bengals teammates Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, injured Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay, Odell Beckham Jr., Sutton, Smith-Schuster and Aiyuk (some of whom are being picked in the sixth round of most drafts).

Among those being selected in the fifth round, Aiyuk is my top choice. The 2020 first-round pick impressed as a rookie, posting a 60-748-5 receiving line and an additional 77 yards and two scores on the ground despite missing four games. He was fantasy’s No. 9 WR during 12 active weeks and a candidate for a full-on breakout in 2021.

Round 6: Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott

The « wait at quarterback » movement served its purpose over the past few seasons, and now the position appears to be valued fairly well. Whereas people were chasing midrange QB1s like Philip Rivers and Drew Brees in the third round a decade ago, we can now get midrange QB1s like Prescott and Jackson in the sixth round.

This is my favorite area to strike at the position, assuming one of these two is available. Prescott was fantasy’s No. 2 QB in 2019 and was sitting in the same spot (while on pace for 7,000 passing yards!) during four full weeks prior to injury last season. Jackson, meanwhile, fell off a bit last season, but has still scored 58 more fantasy points than any other quarterback over the past two seasons. He’ll benefit from a better supporting cast and perhaps an offense that leans more on his arm in 2021. Both are ideal targets in this range.

If not quarterback, Golladay regularly makes it to the sixth round and is one of the several aforementioned wide receivers on my radar. The last time we saw the Giants’ new No. 1 receiver for a full season, he was fantasy’s No. 9 WR while with the Lions (2019). Speaking of the Lions, Hockenson is a quality target if he makes it to the sixth round. This area of the draft is peak « RB dead zone, » as our best options are Mike Davis, Chase Edmonds and James Robinson.

The Middle Rounds

Round 7: Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton

OK, so the core of my team is in place. It’s time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. We’ll save the high-risk fliers for later.

With nearly 30 running backs off the board, the position is still pretty ugly, with Damien Harris, Raheem Mostert, Melvin Gordon III and rookies Trey Sermon and Michael Carter the most popular picks. No thanks. Instead, I’m generally looking wide receiver in this range.

Denver teammates Jeudy and Sutton pop out as the most intriguing targets. Jeudy, a 2020 first-round pick, quietly ranked 21st among wide receivers in targets as a rookie, but he struggled with drops (eight) and a low catch rate due to shaky QB play (25% off-target rate) and a vertical role (14.5 aDOT) led to only two top-30 fantasy weeks. A torn ACL ruined Sutton’s 2020 season after he posted a 72-1,112-6 receiving line during a breakout 2019. Sutton is an obvious bounce-back candidate, and Jeudy is primed for a second-year leap, especially with Teddy Bridgewater, who supported three top-25 fantasy WRs despite throwing only 15 touchdowns last season, potentially under center.

If I’ve yet to pick a quarterback, this is another good place to strike, with Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert regularly available.

Round 8: Logan Thomas or Laviska Shenault Jr.

I wrote an entire article on why I think Thomas is one of the biggest steals in 2021 fantasy football drafts. He’s currently being selected in the eighth round, but I’d have no qualms grabbing him in the seventh, especially if I didn’t roll with Kelce in the first round.

Of course, because I did take Kelce in this situation, perhaps I’d lean toward another super undervalued player in Shenault. The 2020 second-round pick has breakout written all over him. For starters, he impressed as a rookie, posting a 58-600-5 receiving line while adding 91 yards on the ground despite the Jaguars’ quarterback woes. The 22-year-old will take on a larger role in 2021 and will have No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence under center. Shenault was WR46 in fantasy points as a rookie despite playing a situational role and missing nearly three full games. He’s currently floating around WR40 in ADP, which makes him a very nice value.

William Fuller V and Brandin Cooks also jump out as very nice values here, especially because running back is still pretty ugly (Ronald Jones II, Leonard Fournette and AJ Dillon are the prevalent targets).

Round 9: Michael Gallup or Zack Moss

The ninth round is a popular destination for quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford generally come off the board in this range), but because I try to attack the position in the previous tier or two, I’m instead looking at wide receiver and perhaps running back in this range.

Gallup’s ninth-round ADP (roughly the 45th WR off the board) is pretty egregious, as he was WR38 in 2020 without Dak Prescott for three quarters of the season. He’ll play a sizable role in Dallas’ high-volume offense and figures to produce flex value, at worst.

If I want to go running back here, post-hype sleeper Moss is the top target. The 2020 third-round pick underwhelmed as a rookie due to a timeshare with Devin Singletary and a few missed games, but he was effective when called upon after posting some extremely impressive efficiency stats during his time at Utah. He’s a candidate for a bigger role in Buffalo’s elite offense.

Otherwise, David Johnson and James Conner are respectable fliers for RB-needy teams, whereas Curtis Samuel and Antonio Brown are fine WR targets in this range.

Round 10: Kenyan Drake or Jaylen Waddle

I just can’t quit the Drake.

The 27-year-old back has quietly ripped off three consecutive top-17 fantasy campaigns and now finds himself in a committee with Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas. He’s ticketed for a role that will allow him to flirt with flex value in PPR leagues, and he also has a ton of appeal as an insurance back. He’s about as good as we can do at the position in the double-digit rounds. I also like Waddle here, as the hit rate for rookie wide receivers selected in the top 10 (who don’t get hurt) is very good. Consider: From 2010 to ’20, seven WRs were picked in the top 10 and appeared in at least 13 games. Of that group, only Tavon Austin wasn’t a top-30 fantasy WR as a rookie and the six that were all had 900-plus yards and seven-plus touchdowns. History is on the side of 2021 top-10 picks Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Chase, though the latter two are generally off the board earlier.

I’m also keeping an eye on Jamaal Williams and, if I still need a tight end, Robert Tonyan in this range.

The Late-Round Fliers

Rounds 11-12: Upside wide receiver bonanza, led by Henry Ruggs III

At this point, our starting lineup is likely full, which means it’s time to look for values and upside for our bench.

A good place to start is the wide receiver position, as there are a ton of available youngsters, including second-year Ruggs, Jalen Reagor and Gabriel Davis, as well as a batch of rookies led by Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore and Rondale Moore.

Ruggs is my favorite of the bunch, as he’s the only one of the group likely to be his team’s No. 1 wide receiver right out of the gate. The top WR selected in the loaded class of 2020, Ruggs has elite speed and flashed when called upon as a rookie. Unfortunately, he was limited by injuries (missed three games) and inexplicably low usage (3.3 targets per game and no more than five in a single outing). Expect his workload — and production — to increase in a potential breakout second season.

This area of the draft has emerged as a hotbed for tight end lottery tickets, with Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith Jr. and new Patriots teammates Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry the most appealing.

Upside/breakout targets at other positions in this range include Lawrence at QB, Bills running back Singletary and elite insurance RB Alexander Mattison.

Round 13: Tua Tagovailoa

Over the past five seasons, we’ve seen a barrage of high-pedigree QBs make the leap to fantasy QB1 status (some to elite status) in their second season. That list includes Carson Wentz in 2017, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2018, Jackson and Josh Allen in 2019 and Kyler Murray in 2020. Several of those quarterbacks were available in the late rounds of drafts, which in hindsight, doesn’t make much sense.

That being said, there is a high-pedigree, second-year QB available in the late rounds of drafts in 2021. And this guy even had a catchy battle cry during his dominant years at Alabama. I, of course, am talking about Tua Tagovailoa and the infamous « Tank for Tua » tagline. How soon we forget?

Tagovailoa struggled with rookie-season efficiency, but the 2020 fifth-overall pick still managed a decent 14 TDs to only five INTs despite 50% of his throws being directed at Lynn Bowden Jr., Jakeem Grant, Durham Smythe, Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford and Adam Shaheen. In 2021, Tagovailoa will have newcomers Fuller and Waddle to go along with DeVante Parker and Gesicki. Is he a sure thing? No. But he doesn’t have to be in the 13th round. He’s obviously on my radar.

Daniel Jones and Justin Fields (who might not start for a few weeks) are other upside QB options in this range. Cole Beasley lacks a high ceiling, but last season’s WR27 is a potential PPR flex available in this range and worth a look.

Rounds 14-16: High-ceiling insurance and breakout candidates

We’re assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If we’re drafting here at ESPN, we’ll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker (I’ll cover my favorite targets at those spots later).

However, if there’s flexibility, this is a spot where we can gain a leg up on the competition. Most of our league mates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1.

Why? I have no idea. Don’t do that.

In lieu of those positions, I will gather up insurance policies at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If I have the Ravens’ defense rostered and Chris Carson goes down for the season, I have the Ravens’ defense. If I have Rashaad Penny rostered and Carson goes down, I have a potential RB2. Oh, and I can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup and a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN (why wouldn’t it be?), one way around the draft room restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense after the draft in favor of adding high-upside stashes.

Now that the disclaimer is out of the way, here are the players I will be considering with my final few picks:

Quarterback fliers: I generally select one quarterback, especially because a lot of solid QB2 options will go undrafted in most formats. However, if I’m looking to throw a dart at a breakout candidate or sleeper available this late, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Zach Wilson and Jameis Winston stand out.

Running back insurance: I won’t go too in depth here, as I already ranked each team’s insurance situation 1 to 32, but the headliners available this late include Penny, Devontae Booker, Phillip Lindsay, Darrel Williams, Darrynton Evans and Chuba Hubbard. Potential PPR standouts Tarik Cohen (if he’s healthy) and Giovani Bernard also have my attention.

Wide receiver veterans: With teams using more wide receivers than ever before, there are always notable, high-floor veteran wideouts available late. Parris Campbell is my favorite. Last year, I suggested Campbell could be « 2020’s DJ Chark. » That call looked good in Week 1 (71 yards on nine targets), but he then suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2. I also like Jakobi Meyers a lot in this range, though I’d also consider his teammate Nelson Agholor or Jamison Crowder.

Wide receiver rookie fliers: Despite the comfort of a safe veteran receiver, I’m typically aiming for more upside here. That said, rookies Kadarius Toney, Terrace Marshall Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Wayne Eskridge and Nico Collins, as well as second-year players Denzel Mims, KJ Hamler and Van Jefferson are among the youngsters I’m happy to stash on the end of my bench. I could expand this list even further, but as a simple rule, we should have our eyes on Days 1 and 2 first- and second-year receivers.

Tight end options: There are a lot of intriguing breakout options at TE this season and, among those available in this range, Cole Kmet jumps out as the best flier. I also like Eric Ebron as an extremely undervalued potential TE1. Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz and Anthony Firkser are also on my radar.

Defense/Special Teams

History has taught us over and over again, we should never reach on a D/ST. In fact, since 2016, the top-scoring fantasy D/ST has finished ninth or worse the following season. That includes the 2016 Vikings, 2017 Jaguars, 2018 Bears and 2019 Patriots (the Rams were No. 1 in 2020). Be smart. Just don’t do it.

The Buccaneers, Steelers, Ravens, Bills and Washington Football Team top my D/ST rankings, but because I like to stream, I’ll also be looking at the 49ers, Rams, Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Falcons and Seahawks (no Carson Wentz?), as each has a relatively light Week 1 opponent.

Kicker

This is as simple as picking the top guy left on the board. Justin Tucker, Harrison Butker, Jason Myers, Brandon McManus and Jason Sanders are the best five options, but don’t reach on any of them.

So, there you have it. My game plan for your first step toward a 2021 fantasy football championship. Remember, this piece should not serve as your only draft board. It’s simply the players I’ve found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, the players I would love to have on my squad this season.